Volume 41 - Article 28 | Pages 815–846  

The limits to cumulative causation revisited: Urban-origin Mexico‒US migration in an era of increased immigration restrictions

By Guillermo Paredes-Orozco

Abstract

Background: Cumulative causation ‒ the self-reproduction of migration through community social ties ‒ is a phenomenon central to the continuation of Mexico‒US migration, particularly for flows originating in rural areas. A debate has emerged over whether this self-reproducing process also occurs in large urban areas.

Objective: I aim to determine whether cumulative causation explains US-bound migration from metropolitan areas in Mexico.

Methods: Data comes from the Mexican Migration Project (MMP), which covers 154 origin communities in Mexico (30 of which are in metropolitan areas) and spans the period 1970‒2015. Event-history models are used to estimate the association between community ties and taking a first and last US trip in rural areas, small cities, and metropolitan areas.

Results: The findings support the contention that the migration process from metropolitan areas in Mexico is self-reproducing. Differences in the strength of community ties for predicting international repeat migration between rural and metropolitan areas have declined in recent decades.

Contribution: Previous studies that found no evidence in support of the self-reproduction of migration in metropolitan areas were limited by either the small number of communities assessed or inadequate measurement of community ties. Using a larger sample of communities and better measurement, this study shows that social ties in large cities can play a role similar to that played by rural ties in facilitating and perpetuating international migration. The results suggest that metropolitan migrants from more recently surveyed localities use community ties to reduce the costs and risks of migration.

Author's Affiliation

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Reducing uncertainty in Delphi surveys: A case study on immigration to the EU
Volume 49 - Article 36    | Keywords: European Union, immigration, international migration, migration flows

Advanced or postponed motherhood? Migrants’ and natives’ gap between ideal and actual age at first birth in Spain
Volume 49 - Article 22    | Keywords: actual age at first birth, age at arrival, fertility, ideal age at first birth, international migration, motherhood, Spain

Adolescence in flux: Unmasking 30 years of change in subnational parity-specific adolescent fertility in Mexico
Volume 49 - Article 15    | Keywords: adolescent fertility, Mexico, parity progression ratios, subnational, teenage childbearing

Aligning household decision-making with work and education: A comparative analysis of women’s empowerment
Volume 48 - Article 19    | Keywords: autonomy, cross-national comparison, decision-making, developing countries, development, gender, gender inequalities, latent class analysis, women empowerment

Household structure across childhood in four lower- and middle-income countries
Volume 47 - Article 6    | Keywords: children, cross-national comparison, developing countries, household structure, sequence analysis

Cited References: 63

Download to Citation Manager

Volume
Page
Volume
Article ID