A spatial dynamic panel approach to modelling the space-time dynamics of interprovincial migration flows in China
Demographic Research 

Description of code provided as Supplementary Materials

This supplement contains two folders that permit the estimation of model parameters and space-time effects, respectively. 
The code is written and run in Matlab R2016b, based on the spatial econometrics toolbox jplv7 (http://www.spatial-econometrics.com).
 
The folder 'Model parameter estimates' contains the following files:
1. flow_star_mcmc.m: This is a script file that reads migration flow data and the explanatory variables from the data_T6_1980_15.mat file and then calls the function programs to estimate the model parameters and output the results (tar_result.mat, star_result.mat).
2. tar_mcmc_mh.m: This is a Matlab function file that estimates the parameters of explanatory variables and the magnitude of temporal dependence in the nonspatial dynamic panel model.
3. star_mcmc_mh.m: This is a Matlab function file that estimates the parameters of explanatory variables and the magnitudes of spatial, temporal, and space-time diffusion dependence in the spatial dynamic panel model.
4. data_T6_1980_15.mat: This is a MAT-file containing the migration OD flows as the dependent variables and the explanatory variables at the origins and destinations.
5. w.mat: This is the 31 * 31 spatial weight matrix for 31 provinces.
6. Wo.mat: This is the 930 * 930 origin-based spatial dependence matrix, eliminating the intraregional flows. 
7. Wd.mat: This is the 930 * 930 destination-based spatial dependence matrix, eliminating the intraregional flows. 
8. Ww.mat: This is the 930 * 930 origin-to-destination based dependence matrix, eliminating the intraregional flows. 

Before we do effects estimation, we should load the results of parameter estimates (tar_result.mat or star_result.mat) from the 'Model parameter estimates' folder to the 'Space-time effects estimates' folder.

The folder 'Space-time effects estimates' contains the following files:
1. nonspatial_effect_print.m: This is a script file that estimates the contemporary (T = 0) and cumulative long-term effects for nonspatial dynamic panel model, and stores the results in nonspatial_effect.xls.
2. nonspatial_effect2_print.m: This is a script file that estimates the period-by-period (T = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) effects for nonspatial dynamic panel model, and stores the results in nonspatial_effect2.xls.
3. spatial_effect_print.m: This is a script file that estimates the contemporary (T = 0) and cumulative long-term effects for spatial dynamic panel model, and stores the results in spatial_effect.xls.
4. spatial_effcet2_print.m: This is a script file that estimates the period-by-period (T = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) effects for spatial dynamic panel model, and stores the results in spatial_effect2.xls.
5.  w.mat, Wo.mat, Wd.mat, and Ww.mat: These matrices are the same as those in the folder 'Model parameter estimates'. 

If you have any question regarding the code, please feel free to contact: zxy919781142@163.com, yingxiapu@nju.edu.cn.