Volume 42 - Article 3 | Pages 57–98  

Migrant-based youth bulges and social conflict in urban sub-Saharan Africa

By Ashira Menashe-Oren

Abstract

Background: Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced relatively high population growth, which raises concerns about the potential contribution of large young cohorts, termed ‘youth bulges’, to unrest. Youth bulges, under the right circumstances, can expand productivity and boost economic growth, but they have also been found to enable civil war, corruption, and democracy collapse, especially where resources are scarce.

Objective: This paper considers youth bulges characterised by high proportions of rural‒urban migrants and examines their effects on the likelihood of social conflict in urban sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2013.

Methods: United Nations data on urban and rural populations by age and sex is combined with the Social Conflict Analysis Database to create a cross-section time series dataset. Negative binomial models are used to examine the relationship between youth bulges and conflict using country level fixed effects.

Results: The study finds that a migrant-based youth bulge does not increase the likelihood of urban social conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, female youth bulges, often neglected when studying conflict, are found to increase the likelihood of conflict.

Conclusions: The overall disassociation between young rural‒urban migrants and social conflict is encouraging. All the same, women were found to play a role in conflict, and women should therefore be considered in future studies.

Contribution: This article characterises the composition of youth bulges – an important factor that has previously been ignored ‒ by examining whether youth bulges composed largely of rural‒urban migrants are more likely to increase the likelihood of conflict in urban sub-Saharan Africa.

Author's Affiliation

• Ashira Menashe-Oren - Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

The dynamic role of household structure on under-5 mortality in southern and eastern sub-Saharan Africa
Volume 49 - Article 11

Migration’s contribution to the urban transition: Direct census estimates from Africa and Asia
Volume 48 - Article 24

Urban–rural disparities in adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa
Volume 39 - Article 5

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Moving towards gender equality in China: The influence of migration experiences on rural migrants’ gender role attitudes
Volume 49 - Article 14    | Keywords: China, culture, gender attitudes, gender roles, rural-urban migration

The dynamic role of household structure on under-5 mortality in southern and eastern sub-Saharan Africa
Volume 49 - Article 11    | Keywords: child mortality, Health and Demographic Surveillance System, household structure, sub-Saharan Africa

Comparative evidence of years lived with reproductive-age morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa (2010‒2019)
Volume 49 - Article 6    | Keywords: life expectancy, maternal morbidities, reproductive age, sub-Saharan Africa

Women's economic empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from cross-national population data
Volume 47 - Article 15    | Keywords: agency, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), economic growth, education, employment, sub-Saharan Africa, women's economic independence

“One hand does not bring up a child:” Child fostering among single mothers in Nairobi slums
Volume 46 - Article 30    | Keywords: child fostering, informal settlements, Kenya, kinship, single motherhood, sub-Saharan Africa