Data and Codes for Replicating ※The Power of the Government: China's Family Planning Leading Group and the Fertility Decline of the 1970s§ Yi Chen (Jinan University, Institute for Economic and Social Research. Email: chenyiecon@jnu.edu.cn) Yingfei Huang (Xi'an Jiaotong University, Jinhe Center for Economic Research. Email: fayhuang.econ@gmail.com) March 3, 2020 ********************** *1 Accessing the Data* ********************** To replicate all the results in our paper, three levels of data are needed: national level, province level, and individual level. We include both the national level and the province level data in the folder ※Data.§ We provide more details about the data in the next section. Our paper also involves two individual-level data〞a 20% sample of the 2005 1% Inter-Decennial Population Census (mini-census 2005) and the 2010 wave of the China Family Panel Study. We cannot release those two data sets because we do not own their copyrights. The CFPS data is publicly available, but all use requests must be addressed to the Institute of Social Science Survey in Peking University, who maintained the CFPS survey (http://www.isss.pku.edu.cn/cfps/). Although mini-census 2005 (maintained by the National Bureau of Statistics of China) is not publicly available, many universities in China have access to it. For example, the Survey Data Center in one author's institute (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Jinan Univer-sity) has access to all waves of the Chinese census. Interested readers can contact the author (chenyiecon@jnu.edu.cn) for help. Note that the readers should be able to replicate most of our results even without the access to mini-census 2005. ******************************************** *2 About the Data (in the folder ※Data§) * ******************************************** The folder ※Data§ contains following data sets: 1. main_national_level.dta. This data contain the main information at the national level and include the following variables: tfr: National total fertility rate (Source: Lu and Zhai (2009)) sexratio: National sex ratio at birth (Source: Liang and Chen (1993) and the China Population Statistical Yearbook) UN: Fertility rate from the United Nations Population Division. CoaleLi: National fertility rate from Coale and Li (1987) IUD: Number of IUD insertion operations (millions) (Source: National Family Planning Committee of P.R. China, Comprehensive Planning Department (1983)) abortion: Number of abortions (millions) (Source: National Family Planning Commit-tee of P.R. China, Comprehensive Planning Department (1983)) sterilization: Number of sterilizations (millions) (Source: National Family Planning Committee of P.R. China, Comprehensive Planning Department (1983)) FPP_fund: Amount of funds for family planning (millions RMB) (Source: National Population and Family Planning Commission of P.R. China (2007)) end_abortion: Share of pregnancies end with an abortion (Source: authors' computa-tion from CHARLS 2014) end_miscarriage: Share of pregnancies end with a miscarriage (Source: authors＊ com-putation from CHARLS 2014) abortion_fpp: Share of abortions due to family planning (Source: authors' computation from CHARLS 2014) abortion_unwanted: Share of abortions due to unwanted birth (Source: authors' com-putation from CHARLS 2014) 2. main_prov_level.dta. This data contain the main information at the province level and include the following variables: totaltfr: Provincial total fertility rate (Source: Coale and Li (1987)) leadingteam: Year of FPLG establishment LLF: Year of LLF policies (Source: Babiarz et al. (2018)) early_marry: Proportion of early marriage (men (women) are younger than 25 (23)) during 1965每1969 (Source: authors' computation from census 2000) late: 0=FPLG established during 1969每1971; 1=established during 1973每1975 sexratio: Sex ratio at birth (Source: authors' computation from census 1982) pop: Population (10,000) (Source: NBS (2010)) nonagri_share: Share of non-agricultural population (Source: NBS (2010)) gdp_pc: GDP per capita (RMB) (Source: NBS (2010)) gdp1st_share: Share of primary industry in GDP (Source: NBS (2010)) gdp2nd_share: Share of secondary industry in GDP (Source: NBS (2010)) stu_secondary: Number of secondary students (10,000) (Source: NBS (2010)) stu_primary: Number of primary students (10,000) (Source: NBS (2010)) deaths: Number of fatalities during the Cultural Revolution (Source: Walder (2017)) as a share of the 1965 population sdy: Number of youths who were sent down (Source: Gu (2009)) as a share of the provincial population born between 1945 and 1960 (calculated using data from census 1982) FPP_fund: Funds for family planning (10,000) (Source: National Population and Fam-ily Planning Commission of P.R. China (2007)) inst_earliest: Earliest year among the three programs (Source: Jia and Persson (2019)) inst_latest: Latest year among the three programs (Source: Jia and Persson (2019)) inst_mean: Average year among the three programs (Source: Jia and Persson (2019)) 3. tfr_age.dta. This data contain the age-specific fertility rate in 1969 in each province (prov=0 means national fertility profile). The source is Coale and Li (1987). 4. china_prov.dta and china_prov_co.dta. Those two data sets are converted from the shape-file of China. They are used to generate Figure 2 ※The establishment year of the FPLG in each province.§ ****************************************************** *3 About the Stata Codes (in the folder ※Do Files§)* ****************************************************** All codes are executed with Stata 14.1 MP edition. The authors last updated all the ado files and run the program on February 24, 2020. The folder ※Do Files§ contains four Stata do-files: 1. master.do. This do file controls all the local paths. 2. 1_Summary_Graphs.do. This do file generates graphs for descriptive purposes. Readers should be able to replicate Figures 1/2/3/4/7/8/9/A1/A2/B1/B2 with the codes. 3. 2_Prov_Analysis.do. This do file generates tables and graphs in our province-level analysis (Section 5). Readers should be able to replicate Figures 5/6 and Tables 1(Panel A)/2/3/B1 with the codes. 4. 3_Micro_Analysis.do. This do file generates tables in our individual-level analysis (Section 6). Readers should be able to replicate Tables 1(Panels B&C)/4/A2 with the codes. *************************************************************** *4 A Note on the Wild Bootstrap Method (Cameron et al., 2008) * *************************************************************** As discussed in the paper, because our number of clusters (<30) is relatively small, we compute the clustered standard errors using the wild bootstrap method with 99,999 replications (Cameron et al., 2008) with the boottest command in Stata (Roodman et al., 2019). Although this method addresses the issue of a small number of clusters, it brings two complications. First, the boot-strap method is a simulation method and therefore only generates a p-value. However, readers are accustomed to reporting standard errors. Therefore, we transform the p-values to standard errors under a student-t distribution for ease of interpretation. Note that we implicitly make a functional assumption when doing this transformation. Second, as readers can see, if the p-value is computationally close to zero, such transformation is not feasible. We instead report standard clustered standard errors. Because this scenario can only happen when the T -value is very large, the corresponding coefficients are highly significant (at 1% level) anyway. ************ *References* ************ Babiarz, K. S., P. Ma, G. Miller, and S. Song (2018). The limits (and human costs) of population policy: Fertility decline and sex selection in China under Mao. NBER Working Paper 25130, National Bureau of Economic Research. Cameron, A. C., J. B. Gelbach, and D. L. Miller (2008). Bootstrap-based improvements for inference with clustered errors. Review of Economics and Statistics 90(3), 414每427. Coale, A. J. and C. S. Li (1987). Basic Data on Fertility in the Provinces of China, 1940每82. East-West Population Inst. Gu, H. (2009). Chinese Educated City Youth: The Whole Story (in Chinese). People's Daily Publishing House. Jia, R. and T. Persson (2019). Individual vs. social motives in identity choice: Theory and evidence from China. Working Paper 26008, National Bureau of Economic Research. Liang, J. and S. Chen (1993). Data Analysis of National Fertility and Birth Control Survey, Volumn 3〞Fertility and Birth Control (in Chinese). China Population Publishing House . Lu, Y. and Z. Zhai (2009). Sixty Years of New China Population (in Chinese). China Population Publishing House. National Bureau of Statistics of China (2010). China Compendium of Statistics 1949每2008. China Statistics Publishing House. National Family Planning Committee of P.R. China, Comprehensive Planning Department (1983). Compilation of Statistics on National Family Planning (in Chinese). National Family Planning Committee of P.R. China, Comprehensive Planning Department. National Population and Family Planning Commission of P.R. China (2007). History of Chinese Population and Family Planning (in Chinese). China Population Publishing House. Roodman, D., M.O. Nielsen, J. G. MacKinnon, and M. D. Webb (2019). Fast and wild: Bootstrap inference in Stata using boottest. Stata Journal 19(1), 4每60. Walder, A. G. (2017). China political events dataset, 1966每1971. url=https://stanford.app.box.com/s/1p228gewy2pjd3817ksq9kd4d6cz3jy8.