Volume 42 - Article 36 | Pages 1039–1056  

Greater mortality variability in the United States in comparison with peer countries

By Richard G. Rogers, Robert A. Hummer, Justin M. Vinneau, Elizabeth M. Lawrence

Abstract

Background: Over the past several decades, US mortality declines have lagged behind other high-income countries. However, scant attention has been devoted to how US mortality variability compares with other countries.

Objective: We examine trends in mortality and mortality variability in the US and 16 peer countries from 1980 through 2016.

Methods: We employ the Human Mortality Database and demographic techniques – with a focus on patterns in the interquartile (IQR), interdecile (IDR), and intercentile (ICR) ranges of survivorship – to better understand US mortality and mortality variability trends in comparative perspective.

Results: Compared to other high-income countries, the US: (1) mortality ranking has slipped for nearly all age groups; (2) is losing its old age mortality advantage; (3) has seen growth in relative age-specific mortality gaps from infancy through midlife; and (4) exhibits greater concentrations of deaths from infancy through adulthood, resulting in much greater mortality variability.

Conclusions: We contribute to calls for renewed attention to the relatively low and lagging US life expectancy. The ICR draws particular attention to the comparatively high US early and midlife mortality.

Contribution: We find comparatively high variability in US mortality. Further reductions in early and midlife mortality could diminish variability, reduce years of potential life lost, and increase life expectancy. Consistent with previous research, we encourage policymakers to focus on reducing the unacceptably high early and midlife mortality in the US. And we urge researchers to more frequently monitor and track mortality variation in conjunction with mortality rates and life expectancy estimates.

Author's Affiliation

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

The persistent southern disadvantage in US early life mortality, 1965‒2014
Volume 42 - Article 11

A longitudinal examination of US teen childbearing and smoking risk
Volume 38 - Article 24

Residential mobility in early childhood: Household and neighborhood characteristics of movers and non-movers
Volume 33 - Article 32

Age patterns of racial/ethnic/nativity differences in disability and physical functioning in the United States
Volume 31 - Article 17

Assimilation and emerging health disparities among new generations of U.S. children
Volume 25 - Article 25

Race/Ethnic differences and age-variation in the effects of birth outcomes on infant mortality in the U.S.
Volume 14 - Article 10

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Subnational contribution to life expectancy and life span variation changes: Evidence from the United States
Volume 50 - Article 22    | Keywords: decomposition methods, life expectancy, lifespan variation, subnational mortality

Differences in mortality before retirement: The role of living arrangements and marital status in Denmark
Volume 50 - Article 20    | Keywords: inequalities, living arrangements, marital status, mortality, retirement

Mortality inequalities at retirement age between migrants and non-migrants in Denmark and Sweden
Volume 50 - Article 18    | Keywords: immigration, life expectancy, lifespan inequality, Nordic countries, pension age, pension policy

Racial classification as a multistate process
Volume 50 - Article 17    | Keywords: Brazil, demography, increments to life, life expectancy, life table, mortality, multistate, race/ethnicity

Measuring short-term mobility patterns in North America using Facebook advertising data, with an application to adjusting COVID-19 mortality rates
Volume 50 - Article 10    | Keywords: COVID-19, data collection, Facebook, mortality, North America, short-term mobility