Volume 45 - Article 13 | Pages 397–452 Author has provided data and code for replicating results

Healthy longevity from incidence-based models: More kinds of health than stars in the sky

By Hal Caswell, Silke van Daalen

Print this page  Facebook  Twitter

 

 
Date received:04 Oct 2020
Date published:29 Jul 2021
Word count:11868
Keywords:cancer, health demography, healthy longevity, incidence models, Markov chains, matrix methods, stochastic models
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2021.45.13
Additional files:readme.45-13 (text file, 1 kB)
 demographic-research.45-13 (zip file, 311 kB)
 

Abstract

Background: Healthy longevity (HL) is an important measure of the prospects for quality of life in ageing societies. Incidence-based (cf. prevalence-based) models describe transitions among age classes and health stages. Despite the probabilistic nature of those transitions, analyses of healthy longevity have focused persistently on means (``health expectancy''), neglecting variances and higher moments.

Objective: Our goal is a comprehensive methodology to analyze HL in terms of any combination of health stages and age classes, or of transitions among health stages, or of values (e.g., quality of life) associated with health stages or transitions.

Methods: We construct multistate Markov chains for individuals classified by age and health stage and use Markov chains with rewards to compute all moments of HL.

Results: We present a new and straightforward algorithm to create the multistate reward matrices for occupancy, transitions, or values associated with occupancy or transitions. As an example, we analyze a published model for colorectal cancer. The possible definitions of HL in this simple model outnumber the stars in the visible universe. Our method can analyze any of them; we show four examples: longevity without abnormal cells, cancer-free longevity, and longevity with cancer before or after a critical age.

Contribution: Our methods make it possible to analyze any incidence-based model,with any number of health stages, any pattern of transitions, and any kind of values assigned to stages. It is easily computable, requires no simulations, provides all the moments of healthy longevity, and solves the inhomogeneity problem.

Author's Affiliation

Hal Caswell - Universiteit van Amsterdam, the Netherlands [Email]
Silke van Daalen - Universiteit van Amsterdam, the Netherlands [Email]

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

» The formal demography of kinship III: Kinship dynamics with time-varying demographic rates
Volume 45 - Article 16

» The formal demography of kinship II: Multistate models, parity, and sibship
Volume 42 - Article 38

» The formal demography of kinship: A matrix formulation
Volume 41 - Article 24

» The sensitivity analysis of population projections
Volume 33 - Article 28

» Lifetime reproduction and the second demographic transition: Stochasticity and individual variation
Volume 33 - Article 20

» Demography and the statistics of lifetime economic transfers under individual stochasticity
Volume 32 - Article 19

» A matrix approach to the statistics of longevity in heterogeneous frailty models
Volume 31 - Article 19

» Why do lifespan variability trends for the young and old diverge? A perturbation analysis
Volume 30 - Article 48

» Reproductive value, the stable stage distribution, and the sensitivity of the population growth rate to changes in vital rates
Volume 23 - Article 19

» Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models
Volume 18 - Article 3

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» Insight on 'typical' longevity: An analysis of the modal lifespan by leading causes of death in Canada
Volume 35 - Article 17    | Keywords: cancer

» Lifetime reproduction and the second demographic transition: Stochasticity and individual variation
Volume 33 - Article 20    | Keywords: Markov chains

» Demography and the statistics of lifetime economic transfers under individual stochasticity
Volume 32 - Article 19    | Keywords: Markov chains

» A matrix approach to the statistics of longevity in heterogeneous frailty models
Volume 31 - Article 19    | Keywords: Markov chains

» Does cancer affect the divorce rate?
Volume 16 - Article 15    | Keywords: cancer

Articles

 

Citations

 

 

Similar Articles

 

 

Jump to Article

Volume Page
Volume Article ID