Volume 45 - Article 42 | Pages 1269–1296 Author has provided data and code for replicating results

Age, period, and cohort effects contributing to the Great American Migration Slowdown

By Robert Bozick

Print this page  Facebook  Twitter


Date received:30 Mar 2021
Date published:15 Dec 2021
Word count:6684
Keywords:age-period-cohort analysis, migration, mobility, population dynamics
Additional files:readme.45-42 (text file, 1 kB)
 demographic-research.45-42 (zip file, 3 kB)


Background: Between 1964 and 2019, the percentage of people in the United States who had moved in the previous year decreased from 20.3% to 9.8%. It is unclear whether this trend was driven by period-specific factors that gradually diminished the prospects of moving for the population as a whole or whether distinct features of birth cohorts differentially contributed to the migration slowdown.

Objective: The present study assesses whether the migration slowdown in the United States was primarily driven by period effects or by cohort effects.

Methods: Using 46 waves of data across the 1964–2019 Annual Social and Economic Supplements to the Current Population Survey, I estimate a series of mixed-effects models predicting the probability of moving and a linear model with age x period interaction terms predicting the probability of moving.

Results: Cohort effects are more salient in slowing the rates of migration than are period effects. The migration slowdown occurred in part because members of the Silent and Baby Boom generations, who had a higher probability of moving at all ages, matured out of their prime years of geographic mobility in young adulthood and were replaced successively by members of Generation X, the Millennial generation, and Generation Z, who comparatively have a lower probability of moving.

Conclusions: The findings suggest that migration measures and subnational population projections that rely on period-level inputs might potentially mischaracterize current and future demographic trends in the United States.

Contribution: This study is the first age-period-cohort analysis of the contemporary migration slowdown in the United States.

Author's Affiliation

Robert Bozick - Rice University, United States of America [Email]

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

» Exploring the role of legal status and neighborhood social capital on immigrant economic integration in Los Angeles
Volume 46 - Article 1

» Do student loans delay marriage? Debt repayment and family formation in young adulthood
Volume 30 - Article 69

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» Segmented assimilation and mobility among men in the early 20th century
Volume 48 - Article 5    | Keywords: mobility

» Culture portability from origin to destination country: The gender division of domestic work among migrants in Italy
Volume 47 - Article 20    | Keywords: migration

» Endogamy and relationship dissolution: Does unmarried cohabitation matter?
Volume 47 - Article 17    | Keywords: migration

» The ethnic wage penalty in Western European regions: Is the European integration model confirmed when differences within countries are considered?
Volume 46 - Article 23    | Keywords: migration

» Nativity differentials in first births in the United States: Patterns by race and ethnicity
Volume 46 - Article 2    | Keywords: migration


»Volume 45





Similar Articles



Jump to Article

Volume Page
Volume Article ID