Volume 48 - Article 11 | Pages 321–338 Author has provided data and code for replicating results

The question of the human mortality plateau: Contrasting insights by longevity pioneers

By Linh Hoang Khanh Dang, Carlo Giovanni Camarda, France Meslé, Nadine Ouellette, Jean-Marie Robine, Jacques Vallin

Print this page  

 

References

Aarssen, K. and de Haan, L. (1994). On the maximal lifespan of humans. Mathematical Population Studies 4(4): 259–281.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08898489409525379
doi:10.1080/08898489409525379
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Akaike, H. (1973). Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle. In: Petrov, B.N. and Cźaki, F. (eds.). Second international symposium on information theory. Budapest: Akademiai Kiadó: 267–281.

Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Barbi, E., Caselli, G., and Vallin, J. (2003). Trajectories of extreme survival in heterogeneous populations. Population 58(1): 43–66.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3246644
doi:10.2307/3246644
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Barbi, E., Lagona, F., Marsili, Marco, Vaupel, J.W., and Wachter, K.W. (2018). The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers. Science 360(6396): 1459-1461.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aat3119
doi:10.1126/science.aat3119
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Beltrán-Sánchez, H., Austad, S.N., and Finch, C.E. (2018). Comment on "The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers". Science 361(6409).

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aav1200
doi:10.1126/science.aav1200
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Bohnstedt, M. and Gampe, J. (2019). Detecting mortality deceleration: Likelihood inference and model selection in the gamma-Gompertz model. Statistics and Probability Letters 150: 68–73.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.spl.2019.02.013
doi:10.1016/j.spl.2019.02.013
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Camarda, C.G. (2022). The curse of the plateau. Measuring confidence in human mortality estimates at extreme ages. Theoretical Population Biology 144: 24–36.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2022.01.002
doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2022.01.002
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Camarda, C.G., Dang, L.H.K., Meslé, F., Robine, J.-M., and Vallin, J. (2018). RE: Premature claim of a plateau of human mortality: The role of sample size. Science : eLetter.

Weblink science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6396/1459/tab-e-letters
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Dong, X., Milholland, B., and Vijg, J. (2016). Evidence for a limit to human lifespan. Nature 538: 257–259.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature19793
doi:10.1038/nature19793
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Einmahl, J.J., Einmahl, J.H.J., and de Haan, L. (2019). Limits to Human Life Span Through Extreme Value Theory. Journal of American Statistical Association 114(527): 1075–1080.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2018.1537912
doi:10.1080/01621459.2018.1537912
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Feehan, D.M. (2018). Separating the Signal From the Noise: Evidence for Deceleration in Old-Age Death Rates. Demography 55(6): 2025–2044.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13524-018-0728-x
doi:10.1007/s13524-018-0728-x
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Gampe, J. (2010). Human mortality beyond age 110. In: Maier, H., Gampe, J., Jeune, B., Robine, J.M., and Vaupel, J.W. (eds.). Supercentenarians. Berlin: Springer-Verlag: 219–230.

Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Gampe, J. (2021). Mortality of Supercentenarians: Estimates from the Updated IDL. In: Maier, H., Jeune, B., and Vaupel, J.W. (eds.). Supercentenarians. Berlin: Springer-Verlag: 29–36.

Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Gavrilov, L.A. and Gavrilova, N.S. (2011). Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages. North American Actuarial Journal 15(3): 432–447.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2011.10597629
doi:10.1080/10920277.2011.10597629
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Gavrilov, L.A. and Gavrilova, N.S. (2019). Late-life mortality is underestimated because of data errors. PLOS Biology 17: e3000148.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000148
doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3000148
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Gavrilov, L.A. and Gavrilova, N.S. (2019). New Trend in Old-Age Mortality: Gompertzialization of Mortality Trajectory. Gerontology 65(5): 451–457.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1159/000500141
doi:10.1159/000500141
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Gavrilova, N.S. and Gavrilov, L.A. (2015). Biodemography of old-age mortality in humans and rodents. Journals of Gerontology Series A - Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 70(1): 1–9.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glu009
doi:10.1093/gerona/glu009
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Gavrilova, N.S., Gavrilov, L.A., and Krut'ko, V.N. (2017). Mortality trajectories at exceptionally high ages: A study of supercentenarians. Paper presented at the 2017 Living to 100 Monograph.

Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Gbari, S., Poulain, M., Dal, L., and Denuit, M. (2017). Extreme value analysis of mortality at the oldest ages: A case study based on individual ages at death. Paper presented at the 2017 Living to 100 Monograph.

Weblink doi:10.1080/10920277.2017.1301260
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Gompertz, B. (1825). On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality. Philosophical Transactions Royal Society 115: 513–585.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspl.1815.0271
doi:10.1098/rspl.1815.0271
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Horiuchi, S. and Wilmoth, J.R. (1998). Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at older ages. Demography 35(4): 391–412.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3004009
doi:10.2307/3004009
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Hosmer, D. and Lemeshow, S. (1998). Applied survival analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9780470258019
doi:10.1002/9780470258019
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

International Database on Longevity (2022). International Database on Longevity. Rostock and Paris: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany), and Institut national d'études démographiques (France).

Weblink www.supercentenarians.org
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Jackson, C. (2016). flexsurv: A platform for parametric survival modeling in R. Journal of Statistical Software 70: 1–33.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.18637/jss.v070.i08
doi:10.18637/jss.v070.i08
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Klein, J.P. and Moeschberger, M.L. (2003). Survival analysis: Techniques for censored and truncated data. New York: Springer-Verlag.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2728-9
doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-2728-9
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Meslé, F. and Vallin, J. (2020). Les causes de décès aux grands âges en France, évolution récente. Quetelet Journal 8(1): 37–72.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.14428/rqj2020.08.01.02
doi:10.14428/rqj2020.08.01.02
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Mueller, L.D. and Rose, M.R. (2018). RE: Evolution of late life. Science : eLetter.

Weblink science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6396/1459/tab-e-letters
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Newman, S.J. (2018). Errors as a primary cause of late-life mortality deceleration and plateaus. PLOS Biology 16: e2006776.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.2006776
doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.2006776
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Olshansky, S.J. and Carnes, B.A. (2018). RE: Mortality plateaus and unlimited lifespan: Let's get real. Science : eLetter.

Weblink science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6396/1459/tab-e-letters
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Ouellette, N. (2016). La forme de la courbe de mortalité des centenaires canadiens-français. Gérontologie et société 38(151): 41–53.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.3917/gs1.151.0041
doi:10.3917/gs1.151.0041
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Ouellette, N., Meslé, F., Vallin, J., and Robine, J.-M. (2021). Supercentenarians and Semi-supercentenarians in France. In: Maier, H., Jeune, B., and Vaupel, J.W. (eds.). Exceptional Lifespans. Cham: Springer-Verlag: 105–123.

Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Rennert, L. (2018). SurvTrunc: Analysis of Doubly Truncated Data [electronic resource].

Weblink https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=SurvTrunc
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Rootzén, H. and Zholud, D. (2017). Human life is unlimited - but short. Extremes 20: 713–728.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10687-017-0305-5
doi:10.1007/s10687-017-0305-5
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Shen, P. (2010). Nonparametric analysis of doubly truncated data. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 62(5): 835–853.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10463-008-0192-2
doi:10.1007/s10463-008-0192-2
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Thatcher, A.R. (1999). The long-term pattern of adult mortality and the highest attained age (with discussion). Journal of Royal Statistical Society. Series A 162(Pt.1): 5–43.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-985x.00119
doi:10.1111/1467-985x.00119
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Thatcher, A.R., Kannisto, V., and Vaupel, J.W. (1998). The force of mortality at ages 80 to 120. Odense: Odense University Press (Monographs on Population Aging).

Download reference in RIS | BibTeX

Vijg, J. and Le Bourg, E. (2017). Aging and the inevitable limit to human life span. Gerontology 63(5): 432–434.

Weblink http://dx.doi.org/10.1159/000477210
doi:10.1159/000477210
Download reference in RIS | BibTeX