Analysis code for "The contribution of forecast uncertainty to lifespan uncertainty"

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Authors: Ricarda Duerst, Jonas Schöley

Software: R version 4.5.1
Input data source: https://mortality.org/ (open access, free of charge)

To replicate the analysis, run the source files in ascending numeric order.

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Files in vardecomp.zip:
	
./src: R code to replicate the data transformation, analysis and visualisation
	- 00-global_objects.R: Define global constants and functions
	- 00-penalized_lee_carter_functions.R: Define configuration of penalized Lee-Carter model
	- 10-specify_forecasting_models.R: Specify parametrization of forecasting models
	- 11-fit_forecasting_models.R: Fit mortality forecast models
	- 12-forecast_cohort_lifetables.R: Forecast the cohort lifetables based on diagonal approach
	- 13-diagnose_fits.R: Diagnose problems in model fit
	- 14-diagnose_forecasts.R: Diagnose problems in model forecast
	- 20-decompose_lifespan_variance.R: Perform lifespan variance decomposition
	- 31_error_scores.R: Calculate the forecast error scores and create a data frame for plotting
	- 32-create_plots_for_manuscript.R: Create data visuals of the results
	
./cfg
	- config.yaml: Global constants for the analysis
	
./dat/hmd: Input data from the Human Mortality Database
	./denmark:
		- cohort_LT_1x1.txt: Male cohort lifetables by single year and age
		- Deaths_1x1.txt: Male death counts by single year and age
		- Exposures_1x1.txt: Male population exposures by single year and age
	./englandwales:
		- cohort_LT_1x1.txt
		- Deaths_1x1.txt
		- Exposures_1x1.txt
	./france:
		- cohort_LT_1x1.txt
		- Deaths_1x1.txt
		- Exposures_1x1.txt
	./iceland:
		- cohort_LT_1x1.txt
		- Deaths_1x1.txt
		- Exposures_1x1.txt
	./netherlands:
		- cohort_LT_1x1.txt
		- Deaths_1x1.txt
		- Exposures_1x1.txt
	./norway:
		- cohort_LT_1x1.txt
		- Deaths_1x1.txt
		- Exposures_1x1.txt
	./sweden
		- cohort_LT_1x1.txt
		- Deaths_1x1.txt
		- Exposures_1x1.txt
		
./out: output data
	- 20-vardecomp.qs: dataframe containing results of variance decomposition