Volume 6 - Article 16 | Pages 455–470

Period Fertility in Russia since 1930: an application of the Coale-Trussell fertility model

By Sergei Scherbov, Harrie van Vianen

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Date received:04 Apr 2002
Date published:07 Jun 2002
Word count:3300
Keywords:fertility, fertility models, historical demography, period fertility, Russia


In this paper we present a detailed demographic analysis of the change of period fertility that occurred since 1930, based on individual retrospective data, collected in the most recent (five percent) microcensus of the Russian Federation from 1994. We assess the influence of external events on the level and distribution of (period) fertility. For the years prior to 1950 our information on age specific fertility is not complete, but using fertility models acceptable estimates can be constructed.
The Coale-Trussell model is particularly suited for producing detailed and robust estimates of interpretable parameters of the fertility distribution. Although none of the observed crises in Russia succeeded in exerting a decisive influence on the course of the fertility transition, political events often had profound short-term effects.

Author's Affiliation

Sergei Scherbov - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria [Email]
Harrie van Vianen - Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften, Austria [Email]

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