Tempo-quantum and period-cohort interplay in fertility changes  in Europe: Evidence from the Czech Republic, Italy, the  Netherlands and Sweden

Tomáš Sobotka

Volume 8 - Article 6 | Pages 151–214

Tempo-quantum and period-cohort interplay in fertility changes in Europe: Evidence from the Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden

By Tomáš Sobotka

Download PDF Submit a Response Letter


Date received:	20 Dec 2002
Date published:	04 Apr 2003
Word count:	13271
Keywords:	cohort analysis, Czech Republic, fertility, fertility timing, Italy, Netherlands, period fertility, Sweden
DOI:	10.4054/DemRes.2003.8.6
Updated Items:	Erratum: there is an error in equation 10 on p. 165. The correct version of equation 10 can be found on page 196 after the "Acknowledgements" section. (Correction made on April 13, 2004)

Abstract

Using detailed data on period and cohort fertility in four European countries, this paper discusses various indicators of period fertility, including indicators adjusted for changes in fertility timing. Empirical analysis focuses on the comparison of cohort fertility and corresponding indicators of period fertility; particular attention is paid to the periods of intensive postponement of childbearing. Some period indicators come consistently closer to the completed cohort fertility than the total fertility rates. This pattern of differential period-cohort approximation widely varies by birth order.
Quite high level of approximation is provided by the tempo-adjusted birth probabilities of parity 1 and a combined indicator of total fertility. Two examples illustrate the use of indicators discussed in the paper: the first provides an estimation of the tempo (timing) and quantum (level) components in fertility change in the Czech Republic and the second presents projections of cohort fertility in the Czech Republic and Italy.