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http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/15/
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| Abstract Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, rather than deterministic, so that their expected accuracy can be assessed.
We review three main methods to compute probabilistic forecasts, namely time series extrapolation, analysis of historical forecast errors, and expert judgement. We illustrate, by the case of Norway up to 2050, how elements of these three methods can be combined when computing prediction intervals for a population’s future size and age-sex composition. We show the relative importance for prediction intervals of various sources of variance, and compare our results with those of the official population forecast computed by Statistics Norway. Author's affiliation Nico Keilman University of Oslo, Norway Dinh Quang Pham Statistics Norway, Norway Arve Hetland Statistics Norway, Norway Keywords cohort component method, forecast errors, forecasting, simulation, stochastic population forecast, time series, uncertainty Related links
Word count (Main text) 9686 Similar Articles (in Demographic Research)
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