Volume 6 - Article 15 | Pages 409-454
Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway
| Date received: | 17 Jan 2002 |
| Date published: | 28 May 2002 |
| Word count: | 9686 |
| Keywords: | cohort component method, forecast errors, forecasting, simulation, stochastic population forecast, time series, uncertainty |
| DOI: | 10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.15 |
| Weblink: | Technical documentation for Norwegian stochastic forecast |
Abstract
Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, rather than deterministic, so that their expected accuracy can be assessed.
We review three main methods to compute probabilistic forecasts, namely time series extrapolation, analysis of historical forecast errors, and expert judgement. We illustrate, by the case of Norway up to 2050, how elements of these three methods can be combined when computing prediction intervals for a population’s future size and age-sex composition. We show the relative importance for prediction intervals of various sources of variance, and compare our results with those of the official population forecast computed by Statistics Norway.
Author's Affiliation
Nico Keilman - Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Norway
Dinh Quang Pham - Statistics Norway, Norway
Arve Hetland - Statistics Norway, Norway
Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research
»
An editorial on plagiarism
Volume 24 - Article 17
Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research
»
A Guide to Global Population Projections
Volume 4 - Article 8 | Keywords: forecasting, uncertainty
»
Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe: Introduction
Volume 27 - Article 28 | Keywords: uncertainty
»
Labor-market status, migrant status and first childbearing in Sweden
Volume 27 - Article 25 | Keywords: uncertainty
»
Point process models for household distributions within small areal units
Volume 26 - Article 22 | Keywords: simulation
»
The interplay of employment uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe
Volume 25 - Article 16 | Keywords: uncertainty
Articles
Citations
Download to Citation Manager
Similar Articles
PubMed
Google Scholar