Volume 28 - Article 46 | Pages 1373-1388
Thinking about post-transitional demographic regimes: A reflection
|Date received:||10 Mar 2013|
|Date published:||27 Jun 2013|
|Keywords:||demographic regimes, demographic transition, post-transitional demography|
Background: For the last 70 years the concept of the demographic transition has provided a basis for understanding and predicting population trends in the developing world. However, a majority of the developing world’s population will soon be post-transitional - what will happen then? This paper attempts to outline where answers to this question might be found. It suggests that a valuable way to organise the study of these issues is the concept of the demographic regime.
Objective: The aim of the paper is to encourage discussion on the nature of post-transitional demographic regimes around the world, especially in the developing world. The style of the reflection is that of a speculative essay - a Denkstűck or ballon d’essai.
Methods: In addition to a discussion of the concept of a demographic regime, the paper looks at three possible sources of information on the determinants of post-transitional regimes in the developing world: 1) the nature of the transition itself, 2) lessons drawn from pre-transitional regimes, and 3) demographic trends in Europe and other developed countries, some which have been post-transitional for several decades.
Conclusions: The paper concludes with a set of suggestions for future research on the topic.
Chris Wilson - University of Oxford, United Kingdom
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