Volume 6 - Article 10 | Pages 263–294
The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway
Date received: | 20 Nov 2001 |
Date published: | 05 Apr 2002 |
Word count: | 7450 |
Keywords: | birth rate, fertility, multilevel model, registry data, unemployment |
DOI: | 10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.10 |
Abstract
Continuous-time hazard models are estimated from register-based birth, migration, education and unemployment histories for the complete Norwegian population, linked with aggregate data for municipalities. The analysis covers the period 1992-98. First-birth rates are slightly higher among women who had been unemployed twelve months before than among others, whereas higher-order birth rates are slightly lower.
Although men’s unemployment has a more pronounced negative effect, according to paternity rate models, the overall conclusion is that unemployment in Norway has had a negligible impact on fertility through individual-level effects. Aggregate-level effects are more important. Higher-order birth rates are lower in municipalities where men’s or women’s unemployment is high than elsewhere. All in all, the peak unemployment level of 6% experienced in 1993 is found to be associated with a reduction of about 0.08 in total fertility.
The results accord well with economic theories for first and higher-order births that are based on the assumption that women are still the primary caretakers.
Author's Affiliation
Øystein Kravdal - Universitetet i Oslo, Norway
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