Volume 21 - Article 23 | Pages 681–718  

Lowest-Low Fertility: Signs of a recovery in Italy?

By Marcantonio Caltabiano, Maria Castiglioni, Alessandro Rosina

Abstract

This study aims to describe the process of birth postponement and recovery in Italy, a country with persistent very low fertility levels.
The case of Italy is particularly significant given that this country carries great demographic weight in "Southern Europe"; an area characterized by cultural and institutional specificities which have important implications for the timing of family formation and the final number of children.
We use data recently published by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat), applying a cohort approach to show changes in CTFRs and the timing of births for the 1950-1980 cohorts. In order to further evaluate the evolution of Italian “fertility ageing” across social groups (with a focus on female education) we also use individual level data from the 2003 Istat multipurpose survey “Famiglia e soggetti sociali”.
We find that a recovery is presently in progress in the northern regions of Italy, even if not all postponed births are recovered. As expected, signs of recovery are above all evident among the youngest generations and more educated women.

Author's Affiliation

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

The effect of the Great Recession on permanent childlessness in Italy
Volume 37 - Article 20

Interdependence between sexual debut and church attendance in Italy
Volume 14 - Article 19

Leaving and returning to the parental home during COVID times in France, Italy, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom
Volume 50 - Article 3

Diverse pathways in young Italians’ entrance into sexual life: The association with gender and birth cohort
Volume 46 - Article 13

The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom
Volume 43 - Article 47

Traditional versus Facebook-based surveys: Evaluation of biases in self-reported demographic and psychometric information
Volume 42 - Article 5

A synthetic measure of mortality using skeletal data from ancient cemeteries: The d index
Volume 38 - Article 65

Intergenerational family ties and the diffusion of cohabitation in Italy
Volume 16 - Article 14

Is marriage losing its centrality in Italy?
Volume 11 - Article 6

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

The effect of migration and time spent abroad on migrants’ health: A home/host country perspective
Volume 50 - Article 37    | Keywords: Albania, health, Italy, migrants, propensity score

Are highly educated partners really more gender egalitarian? A couple-level analysis of social class differentials in attitudes and behaviors
Volume 50 - Article 34    | Keywords: attitudes, couple analysis, education, educational level, gender, gender roles, housework, social class differentials

The importance of education for understanding variability of dementia onset in the United States
Volume 50 - Article 26    | Keywords: dementia, education, lifespan variability, modal age, morbidity compression

Measuring the educational gradient of period fertility in 28 European countries: A new approach based on parity-specific fertility estimates
Volume 49 - Article 34    | Keywords: education, Europe, period fertility, quantum, tempo, total fertility rate (TFR)

A Bayesian model for the reconstruction of education- and age-specific fertility rates: An application to African and Latin American countries
Volume 49 - Article 31    | Keywords: age, Bayesian analysis, education, fertility estimation, fertility rates