Volume 53 - Article 6 | Pages 175–186  

Trends in Indigenous fertility in Canada, 2001–2021

By Yue Teng, Rachel Margolis, Howard Ramos

Abstract

Background: Indigenous peoples in Canada are among the youngest and fastest-growing populations in the country and have had higher fertility rates than non-Indigenous populations.

Objective: This paper examines how Indigenous fertility in Canada changed over two decades (2001–2021). It also examines how Indigenous fertility varies across different Indigenous populations and how the gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous fertility has changed.

Methods: The paper uses the own-children method to reconstruct the total fertility rate (TFR) of Indigenous populations in Canada. Data are from confidential long-form Canadian census micro-files from 2000, 2006, 2016, and 2021 and from the National Household Survey of 2011.

Results: First, we find that Indigenous fertility was close to replacement level in 2001, 2006, and 2011 and that it declined below replacement fertility in 2016 to 1.82 and then to 1.54 in 2021. Second, we disaggregate Indigenous fertility and find that the Inuit have the highest TFR among all Indigenous populations. Status Indians had above-replacement fertility in 2001, 2006, and 2011 but as of 2021 have had below-replacement fertility. In contrast, non-status Indians and Métis had below-replacement fertility between 2001 and 2021. Third, although Indigenous peoples have had much higher fertility than non-Indigenous groups in Canada, the gap has narrowed.

Conclusions: Indigenous fertility has declined to below-replacement levels, moving toward convergence with non-Indigenous populations.

Contribution: This research updates Indigenous fertility estimates in Canada over the 2001 to 2021 period, highlighting a broader picture of fertility decline and providing context for international comparisons.

Author’s Affiliation

• Yue Teng - University of Western Ontario, Canada EMAIL
• Rachel Margolis - University of Western Ontario, Canada EMAIL
• Howard Ramos - University of Western Ontario, Canada EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

The formal demography of kinship V: Kin loss, bereavement, and causes of death
Volume 49 - Article 41

Capturing trends in Canadian divorce in an era without vital statistics
Volume 41 - Article 52

Similar articles in Demographic Research

The role of childlessness in changes in cohort fertility: Cross-national comparisons of countries in Europe, East Asia, and North America
Volume 55 - Article 15    | Keywords: childlessness, cohort fertility, exact decomposition, low fertility, low fertility countries

The recent decline in women’s fertility intentions in Canada: The shift in the intention schedule and the puzzle for family policy
Volume 55 - Article 12    | Keywords: Canada, fertility intentions

The ratio of births observed to births needed: An indicator to assess demographic sustainability
Volume 54 - Article 30    | Keywords: birth-death balance, Bo/Bn ratio, demographic sustainability, demographic transition, fertility decline, replacement, stationary population

Unrealized fertility in demography
Volume 53 - Article 36    | Keywords: fertility desires, low fertility, review, unrealized fertility

Uncertainty, resilience, and fertility: Perceived capacity to overcome loss of employment and fertility intentions in Sweden, 2021
Volume 53 - Article 31    | Keywords: economic uncertainties, fertility decline, fertility intention, globalization, resilience, Sweden