Volume 30 - Article 35 | Pages 1011–1034
Alho, J. (2008). Aggregation across countries in stochastic population forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting 24(3): 343-353.
Alho, J. and Spencer, B. (2005). Statistical Demography and Forecasting. New York: Springer.
Alho, Juha, Alders, Maarten, Cruijsen, Harri, Keilman, Nico, Nikander, Timo, and Pham, Dinh Quang (2006). New forecast: Population decline postponed in Europe. Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe 23(1): 1-10.
Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S. J., Pelletier, F., Buettner, T., and Heilig, G.K. (2011). Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries. Demography 48(3).
Barbieri, Maria Maddalena and Berger, James O. (2004). Optimal predictive model selection. Annals of Statistics 32.
Besag, Julian (1975). Statistical analysis of non-lattice data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series D (The Statistician) 24(3): 179-195.
Bongaarts, J. and Bulatao, R. A. (Eds.) (2000). Beyond Six Billion. Washington, D.C: National Research Council.
Cox, D.R. and Reid, N (2004). A note on pseudolikelihood constructed from marginal densities. Biometrika 91(3): 729-737.
Driessel, K. R. (2007). Computing the best positive semi-definite approximation of a symmetric matrix using a flow [electronic resource]. Institute for Mathematics and its Applications: Applications in Biology, Dynamics, and Statistics.
Fosdick, Bailey K. and Raftery, Adrian E. (2012). Estimating the correlation in bivariate normal data with known variances and small sample sizes. The American Statistician 66(1): 34-41.
Keilman, Nico and Pham, Dinh Quang (2004). Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area. Research Department of Statistics Norway (386).
Lee, Ronald D. (1998). Probabilistic approaches to population forecasting. Population and Development Review 24: 156-190.
Lindsay, Bruce G (1988). Composite likelihood methods. Contemporary Mathematics 80: 221-39.
Lutz, Wolfgang (Ed.) (1996). The Future Population of the World. What Can We Assume Today? London: Earthscan.
Lutz, Wolfgang, Sanderson, Warren, and Scherbov, Sergei (1997). Doubling of world population unlikely. Nature 387: 803-805.
Lutz, Wolfgang, Sanderson, Warren, and Scherbov, Sergei (2001). The end of world population growth. Nature 412: 543-545.
Mayer, Thierry and Zignago, Soledad (2006). Notes on CEPII's distance measures [electronic resource]. CEPII.
Raftery, A. E., Li, N., Ševcíková, H., Gerland, P., and Heilig, G. K. (2012). Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109(35): 13915-13921.
Raftery, A. E., Painter, I., and Volinsky, C. T. (2005). BMA: An R package for Bayesian Model Averaging. R News 5(2): 2-8.
Raftery, A.E., Alkema, L., and Gerland, P. (2013a). Bayesian population projections for the United Nations. Statistical Science 28: in press.
Raftery, A.E., Chunn, J. L., Gerland, P., and Ševcíková, H. (2013b). Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries. Demography 50(3).
Raftery, Adrian E (1995). Bayesian model selection in social research. Sociological Methodology 25: 111-164.
Raftery, Adrian E, Madigan, David, and Hoeting, Jennifer A (1997). Bayesian model averaging for linear regression models. Journal of the American Statistical Association 92(437): 179-191.
Raftery, Adrian, Hoeting, Jennifer A, Volinsky, Chris, Painter, Ian, and Yeung, Ka Yee (2013). BMA: Bayesian Model Averaging [electronic resource]. R package version 3.16.1.
Ševcíková, H. and Gerland, P. (2013). wpp2010: World Population Prospects 2010.
Ševcíková, Hana, Alkema, Leontine, and Raftery, Adrian E. (2011). bayesTFR: An R package for probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate. Journal of Statistical Software 43(1): 1-29.
Statistics Netherlands (2005). Changing population of Europe: Uncertain future.
United Nations (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables.
Varin, Cristiano, Reid, Nancy, and Firth, David (2011). An overview of composite likelihood methods. Statistica Sinica 21: 5-42.
Wilson, Tom and Bell, Martin (2007). Probabilistic regional population forecasts: The example of Queensland, Australia. Geographical Analysis 39(1): 1-25.