Adrian E. Raftery

Adrian E. Raftery

Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology at the University of Washington in Seattle. He was born in Dublin, Ireland, and obtained a B.A. in Mathematics (1976) and an M.Sc. in Statistics and Operations Research (1977) at Trinity College Dublin. He obtained a doctorate in mathematical statistics in 1980 from the Université Pierre et Marie Curie in Paris, France under the supervision of Paul Deheuvels. He was a lecturer in statistics at Trinity College Dublin from 1980 to 1986, and then an associate (1986-1990) and full (1990-present) professor of statistics and sociology at the University of Washington. He was the founding Director of the Center for Statistics and Social Sciences (1999-2009). Raftery has published over 170 refereed articles in statistical, sociological and other journals. His research focuses on Bayesian model selection and Bayesian model averaging, model-based clustering, population projection and estimation, and the development of new statistical methods for sociology, demography, and the environmental and health sciences. He is a member of the United States National Academy of Sciences, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, an Honorary Member of the Royal Irish Academy, a member of the Washington State Academy of Sciences, a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and an elected Member of the Sociological Research Association. He has won the Population Association of America's Clifford C. Clogg Award, the American Sociological Association's Paul F. Lazarsfeld Award for Distinguished Contribution to Knowledge, the Jerome Sacks Award for Outstanding Cross-Disciplinary Research from the National Institute of Statistical Sciences, and the Emanuel and Carol Parzen Prize for Statistical Innovation. He is also a former Coordinating and Applications Editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association and a former Editor of Sociological Methodology. He was identified as the world's most cited researcher in mathematics for the decade 1995-2005 by Thomson-ISI. Twenty-six students have obtained Ph.D.'s working under Raftery's supervision, of whom 18 hold university faculty positions.


University of Washington

Articles by Adrian E. Raftery

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30 June 2021 | research article

Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by 2100 using Bayesian population projections

Michael Pearce, Adrian E. Raftery

Volume: 44 Article ID: 52
Pages: 1271–1294
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2021.44.52

08 June 2018 | research article

Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates

Hana Sevcikova, Adrian E. Raftery, Patrick Gerland

Volume: 38 Article ID: 60
Pages: 1843–1884
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.60

23 November 2017 | research article

Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic

Jessica Godwin, Adrian E. Raftery

Volume: 37 Article ID: 48
Pages: 1549–1610
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2017.37.48

02 April 2014 | research article

Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations

Bailey Fosdick, Adrian E. Raftery

Volume: 30 Article ID: 35
Pages: 1011–1034
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.35

14 March 2014 | research article

Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy

Adrian E. Raftery, Nevena Lalic, Patrick Gerland

Volume: 30 Article ID: 27
Pages: 795–822
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.27

25 April 2012 | research article

Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data

Leontine Alkema, Adrian E. Raftery, Patrick Gerland, Samuel J. Clark, Francois Pelletier

Volume: 26 Article ID: 15
Pages: 331–362
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.15