Volume 37 - Article 40 | Pages 1327–1338
On the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa
6 Aug 2017
24 Oct 2017
Background: This descriptive finding examines the comparative pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, relative to Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa.
Objective: We seek to determine if fertility decline has been slower in sub-Saharan Africa than elsewhere in the developing world.
Methods: United Nations 2017 estimates of national fertility are used in assessing the comparative pace of fertility decline, and the four regions are compared in terms of how far they are into their fertility transition.
Results: The data shows clearly that fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, still at a comparatively early stage, has been considerably slower than the earlier declines in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa at comparable stages of the transition, and displays less within-region heterogeneity than the transitions in these other regions.
Conclusions: The slower pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, in conjunction with the high current fertility levels in the region, means that in the absence of policies seeking to accelerate fertility decline, sub-Saharan Africa will continue to experience rapid population growth that in turn will constrain its development.
Contribution: Presentation of data in a novel way (Figures 2‒4, and associated calculations) unambiguously demonstrates the slow pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa compared with other regions of the world.
- David Shapiro - Pennsylvania State University, United States of America EMAIL
- Andrew Hinde - University of Southampton, United Kingdom EMAIL
Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research
Mortality convergence of twins and singletons in sub-Saharan Africa
Volume 41 - Article 36
The geography of changing fertility in Myanmar
Volume 41 - Article 2
Women’s education, infant and child mortality, and fertility decline in urban and rural sub-Saharan Africa
Volume 37 - Article 21
An editorial on plagiarism
Volume 24 - Article 17
Unusually small sex differentials in mortality of Israeli Jews: What does the structure of causes of death tell us?
Volume 20 - Article 11
Fertility and union dissolution in Brazil: an example of multi-process modelling using the Demographic and Health Survey calendar data
Volume 17 - Article 7
The proximate determinants of fertility and birth intervals in Egypt: An application of calendar data
Volume 16 - Article 3
Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research
Analyzing hyperstable population models
Volume 49 - Article 37
dynamic population model,
Ultra-Orthodox fertility and marriage in the United States: Evidence from the American Community Survey
Volume 49 - Article 29
age at first marriage,
American Community Survey (ACS),
total fertility rate (TFR),
Advanced or postponed motherhood? Migrants’ and natives’ gap between ideal and actual age at first birth in Spain
Volume 49 - Article 22
actual age at first birth,
age at arrival,
ideal age at first birth,
Describing the Dutch Social Networks and Fertility Study and how to process it
Volume 49 - Article 19
Partial fertility recuperation in Spain two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic
Volume 49 - Article 17