Volume 42 - Article 22 | Pages 657–688  

The educational differential in fertility in transitional China: Temporal and regional variation

By Jianlin Niu, Yaqiang Qi

Abstract

Background: Education expansion has contributed significantly to fertility decline during the worldwide fertility transition. Yet, it is less clear whether the educational gradient in fertility remains stable and persists in the post-transition era. In light of the rapid education expansion in many low-fertility countries, the education–fertility nexus becomes increasingly relevant to demographic and socioeconomic prospects.

Objective: In this study we investigate the education–fertility relationship in China by focusing on its robustness in different socio-institutional contexts both during and after the demographic transition.

Methods: We use the cohort parity progression ratios (PPRs) to unveil women’s reproduction progress over the life course. The PPRs are estimated for each educational group, jointly classified by cohort, period, place of residence, and province, using China’s census and mini-census data between 1982 and 2015. We fit multilevel models to investigate the education–fertility relationship and to explore its temporal and contextual variation.

Results: We find strong empirical support for a negative association between women’s education and each of the successive PPRs in China, both during and after the course of fertility transition. Nevertheless, the strength of the relationship changes over time, particularly for second and higher order births. The education–fertility link also varies profoundly by contextual features.

Contribution: This study extends the literature by exploring the potential dynamics and structural variation of the education–fertility link from demographically transitional to post-transition China. The results provide a panoramic picture of fertility change in China, and insights that lead to a better understanding of world population prospects in the post-transition era.

Author's Affiliation

• Jianlin Niu - Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), China EMAIL
• Yaqiang Qi - Renmin University of China, China EMAIL

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Lowest low fertility in Spain: Insights from the 2018 Spanish Fertility Survey
Volume 51 - Article 19    | Keywords: fertility desires, low fertility, Spain

A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections
Volume 51 - Article 11    | Keywords: age dependency, education, international migration, migration, modelling, population projection, projections

Impact of family policies and economic situation on low fertility in Tehran, Iran: A multi-agent-based modeling
Volume 51 - Article 5    | Keywords: economic conditions, family policy, Iran, low fertility, multi-agent-based modeling

Are highly educated partners really more gender egalitarian? A couple-level analysis of social class differentials in attitudes and behaviors
Volume 50 - Article 34    | Keywords: attitudes, couple analysis, education, educational level, gender, gender roles, housework, social class differentials

The importance of education for understanding variability of dementia onset in the United States
Volume 50 - Article 26    | Keywords: dementia, education, lifespan variability, modal age, morbidity compression