Volume 44 - Article 30 | Pages 719–758
Mexican mortality 1990‒2016: Comparison of unadjusted and adjusted estimates
By Dana Glei, Andres Barajas Paz, Jose Manuel Aburto, Magali Barbieri
DemRes_44-30_Supplementary material (pdf file, 215 kB)
Abstract
Background: Vital statistics registration and census counts for Mexico may be incomplete, resulting in unreliable mortality indicators.
Objective: We evaluate unadjusted mortality estimates for Mexico during 1990‒2016 and compare them with other published estimates for Mexico and with the historical mortality patterns observed among the 41 Human Mortality Database (HMD) populations. Finally, we investigate the effect of various adjustments on estimated life expectancy.
Methods: We apply the HMD methodology to the official vital statistics and census counts to construct unadjusted life table series for Mexico. Then we make adjustments by substituting revised estimates for child mortality and by fitting a log-quadratic model.
Results: Adjusted estimates of mortality below age 5 derived by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (IGME) are up to 48% higher than our unadjusted estimates. Even in 2015, the IGME-adjusted estimates of child mortality remain at least 10% higher than our unadjusted estimates. Our analysis suggests that there may also be underestimation of mortality at both prime adult ages and the oldest ages. The log-quadratic model produced the lowest estimates of life expectancy at birth (3.8‒4.4 years lower than the unadjusted values in 1995).
Conclusions: Unadjusted estimates are likely to underestimate mortality in Mexico, even in recent years. Adjustments may improve the accuracy of the mortality estimates, but we cannot adjudicate which set of adjusted estimates is closest to reality.
Contribution: This is the first time the HMD methodology has been applied to the Mexican data.
Author's Affiliation
- Dana Glei - Georgetown University, United States of America EMAIL
- Andres Barajas Paz - Heriot-Watt University, United Kingdom EMAIL
- Jose Manuel Aburto - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom EMAIL
- Magali Barbieri - Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), France EMAIL
Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research
Costa Rican mortality 1950‒2013: An evaluation of data quality and trends compared with other countries
Volume 40 - Article 29
Frailty at death: An examination of multiple causes of death in four low mortality countries in 2017
Volume 49 - Article 2
Leveraging deep neural networks to estimate age-specific mortality from life expectancy at birth
Volume 47 - Article 8
Divergent trends in lifespan variation during mortality crises
Volume 46 - Article 11
Lexis fields
Volume 42 - Article 24
Geofaceting: Aligning small-multiples for regions in a spatially meaningful way
Volume 41 - Article 17
The threshold age of the lifetable entropy
Volume 41 - Article 4
Self-Reported Versus Performance-Based Measures of Physical Function: Prognostic Value for Survival
Volume 30 - Article 7
The effects of war losses on mortality estimates for Italy: A first attempt
Volume 13 - Article 15
Introduction to the Special Collection “Human Mortality over Age, Time, Sex, and Place:
The 1st HMD Symposium”
Volume 13 - Article 10
Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research
Adolescence in flux: Unmasking 30 years of change in subnational parity-specific adolescent fertility in Mexico
Volume 49 - Article 15
| Keywords:
adolescent fertility,
Mexico,
parity progression ratios,
subnational,
teenage childbearing
Comparative evidence of years lived with reproductive-age morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa (2010‒2019)
Volume 49 - Article 6
| Keywords:
life expectancy,
maternal morbidities,
reproductive age,
sub-Saharan Africa
Estimation of confidence intervals for decompositions and other complex demographic estimators
Volume 49 - Article 5
| Keywords:
bootstrap,
confidence interval,
decomposition,
demography,
Monte-Carlo simulation,
standard error
The quality of fertility data in the web-based Generations and Gender Survey
Volume 49 - Article 3
| Keywords:
accuracy,
data quality,
fertility,
Generations and Gender Survey (GGS)
Frailty at death: An examination of multiple causes of death in four low mortality countries in 2017
Volume 49 - Article 2
| Keywords:
aging,
causes of mortality,
mortality,
multiple causes of death
Cited References: 61
Download to Citation Manager
PubMed
Google Scholar