Volume 49 - Article 34 | Pages 905–968  

Measuring the educational gradient of period fertility in 28 European countries: A new approach based on parity-specific fertility estimates

By Angela Greulich, Laurent Toulemon


Background: Measures of fertility by level of female education are currently only available for cohorts that have already completed childbearing age. The focus on cohorts whose fertility decisions were made in the past is problematic when the objective is to better understand which specific groups within European countries are currently the most affected by low and/or declining fertility.

Objective: In this article we provide more timely measures of the educational gradient of fertility for Europe by quantifying it for those cohorts that are currently of childbearing age (ages 15 to 49) for most European countries.

Methods: To measure period fertility by education for 24 EU and 4 non-EU countries in Europe, we use data from the European Union’s Survey of Income and Living Conditions, EU-SILC (Eurostat 2020). A semi-retrospective approach is used to observe the parity-specific fertility behavior of cohorts that are of childbearing age, while at the same time recording the educational level correctly. Bayesian statistics allow us to obtain credible intervals for the age-, education-, and parity-specific birth probabilities for each country. These birth probabilities are then combined into a multi-state life table in order to obtain parity-specific and total birth intensities by education. A post-stratification of birth probabilities allows consistency with national fertility estimates, enabling international comparisons of specific groups (e.g., highly educated women) or of particular dimensions of fertility behavior (e.g., childlessness).

Results: Our analytical set-up reveals whether there are significant differences in fertility behavior between education groups in each European country and how these differentials vary between European countries. More precisely, we answer the question of whether, when all birth orders are combined, heterogeneity in period fertility behavior is greater among the higher- or the lower-educated across Europe. In addition, we show for which parity the heterogeneity between education groups is the largest.

Conclusions: Even if low-educated women have the highest period fertility levels in almost all covered European countries, the educational gradient is not always negative. In one-third of European countries, period fertility levels in 2010 exhibit a U-shaped pattern, with the middle-educated having the lowest fertility. The diversity in period fertility levels among highly educated women in Europe is due to the transitions to first and second childbirth of highly educated women being higher in some countries than in others, while higher-order childbirths exhibit a more negative educational gradient across Europe.

Contribution: By delivering a new method for measuring the educational gradient of fertility for women who are of childbearing age rather than for women who have already completed their reproductive years, our research enables a timely analysis of within-country differentials of period fertility behavior.

Author's Affiliation

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Differences in leaving home by individual and parental education among young adults in Europe
Volume 37 - Article 63

Education, labour, and the demographic consequences of birth postponement in Europe
Volume 36 - Article 23

The quality of periodic fertility measures in EU-SILC
Volume 36 - Article 17

Multiple imputation for demographic hazard models with left-censored predictor variables: Application to employment duration and fertility in the EU-SILC
Volume 35 - Article 38

Should governments in Europe be more aggressive in pushing for gender equality to raise fertility? The first "YES"
Volume 24 - Article 7

Multi-residence in France and Australia: Why count them? What is at stake? Double counting and actual family situations
Volume 23 - Article 1

France: High and stable fertility
Volume 19 - Article 16

Overview Chapter 4: Changing family and partnership behaviour: Common trends and persistent diversity across Europe
Volume 19 - Article 6

Summary and general conclusions: Childbearing Trends and Policies in Europe
Volume 19 - Article 2

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

A Bayesian model for the reconstruction of education- and age-specific fertility rates: An application to African and Latin American countries
Volume 49 - Article 31    | Keywords: age, Bayesian analysis, education, fertility estimation, fertility rates

Ultra-Orthodox fertility and marriage in the United States: Evidence from the American Community Survey
Volume 49 - Article 29    | Keywords: age at first marriage, American Community Survey (ACS), fertility, Judaism, marriage, religion, total fertility rate (TFR), Ultra-Orthodox Judaism

Calculating contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning in low-fertility countries with the Generations and Gender Survey
Volume 49 - Article 21    | Keywords: cross-national study, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), Europe, family planning, Fertility and Family Survey (FFS), Generations and Gender Survey (GGS), longitudinal data, panel data, unplanned births, World Fertility Survey

Educational reproduction in Sweden: A replication of Skopek and Leopold 2020 using Swedish data
Volume 48 - Article 25    | Keywords: differential fertility, education, prospective models, reproduction, social mobility, Sweden

A register-based account of period trends in union prevalence, entries, and exits by educational level for men and women in Finland
Volume 48 - Article 14    | Keywords: cohabitation, divorce, education, Finland, marriage, register data, trends, union dissolution