Volume 54 - Article 12 | Pages 371–404
A flexible model for reconstructing education-specific fertility rates: The case of sub-Saharan Africa
By Dilek Yildiz, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, Zuzanna Brzozowska, Afua Durowaa-Boateng
References
Adhikari, S., Lutz, W., and Kebede, E. (2024). Forecasting Africa’s fertility decline by female education groups. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 121(46): e2320247121.
Al Zalak, Z. and Goujon, A. (2017). Exploring the fertility trend in Egypt. Demographic Research 37(32): 995–1030.
Alkema, L., Raftery, A., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J., and Pelletier, F. (2012). Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa. Demographic Research 26(15): 331–362.
Amin, V. and Behrman, J.R. (2011). Do more-schooled women have fewer children and delay childbearing? Evidence from a sample of U.S. twins. SSRN Electronic Journal .
Bongaarts, J. (2017). Africa’s unique fertility transition. Population and Development Review 43(S1): 39–58.
Bongaarts, J. (2008). Fertility transitions in developing countries: Progress or stagnation? Studies in Family Planning 39(2): 105–110.
Bongaarts, J. (2010). The causes of educational differences in fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 8: 31–50.
Bongaarts, J. (2006). The causes of stalling fertility transitions. Studies in Family Planning 37(1): 1–16.
Bongaarts, J. and Feeney, G. (1998). On the quantum and tempo of fertility. Population and Development Review 24(2): 271–291.
Castro Martin, T. (1995). Women’s education and fertility: Results from 26 demographic and health surveys. Studies in Family Planning 26(4): 187–202.
Durowaa-Boateng, A., Yildiz, D., and Goujon, A.A. (2023). Bayesian model for the reconstruction of education-and age-specific fertility rates. Demographic Research 49(31): 809–848.
Gebreselassie, T. and Shapiro, D. (2016). Education and fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: What do we really know? Paper presented at the Population Association of America Annual Meeting, Washington D.C., US, 2016.
Gietel-Basten, S. and Sobotka, T. (2021). Trends in population health and demography. The Lancet 398(10300): 580–581.
Goujon, A., Lutz, W., and Kc, S. (2015). Education stalls and subsequent stalls in African fertility: A descriptive overview. Demographic Research 33(47): 1281–1296.
ICF (2018). Demographic and Health Surveys methodology – Standard Recode Manual for DHS-7 (DHSG4). Rockville, Maryland: ICF.
Jalovaara, M., Neyer, G., Andersson, G., Dahlberg, J., Dommermuth, L., Fallesen, P., and Lappegård, T. (2019). Education, gender, and cohort fertility in the Nordic Countries. European Journal of Population 35(3): 563–586.
Kebede, E., Goujon, A., and Lutz, W. (2019). Stalls in Africa’s fertility decline partly result from disruptions in female education. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116(8): 2891–2896.
Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2020). Accounting for uncertainty about past values in probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for most countries. The Annals of Applied Statistics 14(2): 685–705.
Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M., and Stilianakis, N. (2018). Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries. EU Science Hub – European Commission.
Lutz, W. and Kc, S. (2010). Dimensions of global population projections: What do we know about future population trends and structures? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 365(1554): 2779–2791.
Lutz, W. and KC, S. (2011). Global human capital: Integrating education and population. Science 333(6042): 587–592.
Machiyama, K. (2010). A re-examination of recent fertility declines in sub-Saharan Africa. Fairfax/Reston, VA: ICF Macro, DHS Working Papers 68.
Martin, T.C. (1995). Women’s education and fertility: results from 26 Demographic and Health Surveys. Studies in Family Planning 26(4): 187–202.
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and Vienna Institute of Demography (2023). Human Fertility Database [electronic resource]. Rostock and Vienna: MPIDR and VID.
May, J.F. and Rotenberg, S. (2020). A call for better integrated policies to accelerate the fertility decline in sub‐Saharan Africa. Studies in Family Planning 51(2): 193–204.
Rajaratnam, J.K., Marcus, J.R., Flaxman, A.D., Wang, H., Levin-Rector, A., Dwyer, L., Costa, M., Lopez, A.D., and Murray, C.J. (2010). Neonatal, postneonatal, childhood, and under-5 mortality for 187 countries. The Lancet 375(9730): 1988–2008.
Ryder, N.B. (1986). The cohort as a concept in the study of social change. In: Mason, W.M. and Fienberg, S.E. (eds.). Cohort analysis in social research: Beyond the identification problem. New York, NY: Springer: 9–44.
Schoumaker, B. (2013). A Stata module for computing fertility rates and TFRs from birth histories: tfr2. Demographic Research 28(38): 1093–1144.
Schoumaker, B. (2011). Omissions of births in DHS birth histories in sub-Saharan Africa: Measurement and determinants. Paper presented at the 2010 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, D.C., March 31–April 2, 2011.
Schoumaker, B. (2014). Quality and consistency of DHS fertility estimates, 1990 to 2012. Washington, D.C.: ICF International, DHS Methodological Reports 12.
Schoumaker, B. (2010). Reconstructing fertility trends in sub-Saharan Africa by combining multiple surveys affected by data quality problems. Paper presented at the 2010 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Dallas, TX, April 15–17, 2010.
Schoumaker, B. (2008). Stalls and reversals in fertility transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: Real or spurious? Paper presented at the IUSSP Seminar Human Fertility in Africa: Trends in the last decade and prospects for change, Cape Coast, Ghana, September 16–18, 2008.
Schoumaker, B. (2009). Stalls in fertility transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: Real or spurious? Louvain-la-Neuve: Département des sciences de la population et du développement, Université Catholique de Louvain, Document de travail SPED 30.
Schoumaker, B. (2019). Stalls in fertility transitions in sub‐Saharan Africa: Revisiting the evidence. Studies in Family Planning 50(3): 257–278.
Schoumaker, B.D. and Sánchez-Páez, D.A. (2024). Disruptions in educational progress and fertility dynamics by educational level: Unraveling the link between education and fertility stalls in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review 50(1): 59–85.
Schultz, T.P. (1997). Demand for children in low income countries. In: Rosenzweig, M.R. and Stark, O. (eds.). Handbook of population and family economics. Amsterdam: Elsevier: 349–430.
Ševčíková, H., Alkema, L., and Raftery, A.E. (2011). bayesTFR: An R package for probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate. Journal of Statistical Software 43(1): 1–29.
Shapiro, D. (2012). Women’s education and fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 10(1): 9–30.
Shapiro, D. and Gebreselassie, T. (2008). Fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa: Falling and stalling. African Population Studies 23(1): 3–23.
Skirbekk, V. (2008). Fertility trends by social status. Demographic Research 18(5): 145–180.
Sneeringer, S.E. (2009). Fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparative analysis of cohort trends in 30 countries. Calverton, MD: DHS, DHS Comparative Reports 23.
United Nations (2022). World Population Prospects: The 2022 Revision. New York City: Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, (2022). World Population Prospects 2022: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections. New York City: UNDESA, UN DESA/POP/2022/TR/NO. 4.
USAID (2023). The DHS Program: Demographic and Health Surveys. Washington, D.C: ICF International.
WIC Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (2018). Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer Version 2.0 [electronic resource].
Yildiz, D., Wiśniowski, A., Brzozowska, Z., and Durowaa-Boateng, A.A. (2023). A flexible model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates: Sub-Saharan Africa case. Vienna: VID, Vienna Institute of Demography Working Papers.
Yildiz, D., Wiśniowski, A., Brzozowska, Z., and Durowaa-Boateng, A.A. (2025). A flexible model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates: Sub-Saharan Africa case study version 2. Zenodo.