Volume 54 - Article 26 | Pages 821–834  

Winter life expectancy reduction in Europe

By Valentin Rousson, Fred Paccaud, Isabella Locatelli

Abstract

Background: Mortality is known to be higher in winter than in summer, with excess winter deaths ranging between 5% and 30% in Europe. A recent study conducted in the USA sought to quantify the excess winter mortality in terms of life expectancy reduction, by calculating the difference between summer and winter life expectancy.

Objective: We aimed to calculate Winter Life Expectancy Reduction (WLER) in Europe, illustrate the extent to which this indicator depends on definitions of summer and winter, introduce a novel indicator of WLER based on a statistical model accounting for country-specific seasonal cycles, and compare men and women in terms of WLER.

Methods: WLER indicators were calculated from weekly mortality data in 24 European countries over the period 2000–2019.

Results: On average, WLER was a few months higher in Europe than in the USA, while depending heavily on country and sex, as well as the chosen indicator. Our model-based indicator measured the highest WLER values, ranging from 11 months (Finnish men) to 36 months (Portuguese women), with a European average of 18 months for men and 22 months for women. In most countries, WLER was higher for women than for men, regardless of the indicator used.

Contribution: This is the first study to calculate WLER in Europe. It raises the intriguing scientific question of why women have a greater WLER than men. While life expectancy remains systematically higher in summer than in winter, our model also revealed a decline at the height of summer in Mediterranean countries.

Author’s Affiliation

• Valentin Rousson - Université de Lausanne, Switzerland EMAIL
• Fred Paccaud - Université de Lausanne, Switzerland EMAIL
• Isabella Locatelli - Université de Lausanne, Switzerland EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Dissecting the compression of mortality in Switzerland, 1876-2005
Volume 21 - Article 19

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