Volume 54 - Article 27 | Pages 835–876  

Spatial perspective on environmental migration: Empirical insights from a spatiotemporal approach in the United States, 1970–2010

By Shuai Zhou, Guangqing Chi, Chuan Liao

Abstract

Background: Despite the growth of environmental migration studies in recent decades, spatial analyses examining the impact of climate variability on migration within the United States at a finer geographical scale remain limited.

Objective: This study aims to investigate the environmental aspects of migration and explore the heterogeneous impacts of the environment on age- and place-specific migration patterns at the county level in the United States using spatial methods.

Methods: We employed spatial techniques to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation variability on county-level net migration rates (NMRs) across age groups and rural/urban counties in the United States.

Results: As temperature anomalies increase, nonmetropolitan counties experience a greater decline in NMRs compared to metropolitan counties, indicating that nonmetropolitan areas may be more sensitive to rising temperatures in terms of population change. The age-specific models revealed distinct migration patterns among working-age and older adults, with the NMRs of working-age adults showing a decreasing trend as temperature anomalies increase. In contrast, the NMRs of older adults show an increasing trend primarily in counties with historically cool climates.

Conclusions: This study reveals that environmental factors, particularly temperature anomalies, influence migration patterns in the United States, with older adults exhibiting greater net migration in warmer and rural counties while working-age adults experience less net migration as temperature anomalies increase.

Contribution: This study contributes to the environmental migration literature by employing spatial analysis to explore heterogeneous environmental impacts across age groups and locations in the United States at a finer geographic scale.

Author’s Affiliation

• Shuai Zhou - University of South Alabama, United States of America EMAIL
• Guangqing Chi - Indiana University, United States of America EMAIL
• Chuan Liao - Cornell University, United States of America EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

How do environmental stressors influence migration? A meta-regression analysis of environmental migration literature
Volume 50 - Article 2

A spatial dynamic panel approach to modelling the space-time dynamics of interprovincial migration flows in China
Volume 41 - Article 31

Different places, different stories: A study of the spatial heterogeneity of county-level fertility in China
Volume 37 - Article 16

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