Does the women’s employment–fertility U-shape emerge at the local level? Evidence from Italian municipalities

Gianni Carboni; Daniele Vignoli; Federico Benassi

doi:10.4054/DemRes.2026.55.27

Volume 55 - Article 27 | Pages 909–924

Does the women’s employment–fertility U-shape emerge at the local level? Evidence from Italian municipalities

By Gianni Carboni, Daniele Vignoli, Federico Benassi

Date received:

12 May 2026

Date published:

27 Oct 2026

Word count:

2403

Keywords:

female employment, fertility, gender-equilibrium framework, Italy, local demography, local demography, low fertility

DOI:

10.4054/DemRes.2026.55.27

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Abstract

Background: The gender revolution and multiple equilibria perspectives suggest a U-shaped relationship between women’s employment and fertility as societies move from a traditional male breadwinner equilibrium, through institutional and normative mismatch, towards gender egalitarianism. Whether this pattern can be detected locally in a persistently low-fertility setting remains unclear.

Objective: We ask whether the employment–fertility U-shape is visible across Italian municipalities and whether this relationship displays distinct territorial configurations across the country’s main macro-areas (North, Centre, and South and Islands).

Methods: We construct a harmonized municipality-level dataset from Italian National Institute of Statistics sources for 2019–2024, projecting all observations onto the 2024 geography of 7,896 municipalities. We compute period averages of the general fertility rate and female employment at ages 25–64. We display descriptive associations for both the full sample and a restricted sample, excluding small municipalities, where fertility indicators are more exposed to statistical volatility.

Results: In both samples, the association is U-shaped. Net of some minor overlaps, macro-area panels suggest that municipalities in the South and Islands are more often located on the traditional low-employment/high-fertility side, those in the Centre are around the low-fertility transitional segment, and those in the North are on the high-employment/high-fertility side.

Conclusions: We illustrate that a U-shaped relationship is detectable at the finest available administrative scale for Italy.

Contribution: This study documents a U-shaped employment–fertility association across Italian municipalities. The findings are consistent with a structural interpretation of low fertility, highlighting the importance of institutional and socioeconomic conditions that enable women and men to combine employment and parenthood.

Author’s Affiliation

Gianni Carboni - Università degli Studi di Sassari (UniSS), Italy EMAIL
Daniele Vignoli - Università degli Studi di Firenze, Italy EMAIL
Federico Benassi - Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Italy EMAIL

Does the women’s employment–fertility U-shape emerge at the local level? Evidence from Italian municipalities

Abstract

Author’s Affiliation

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