Volume 55 - Article 24 | Pages 767–810
Projection of family life courses of the descendants of immigrants in England and Wales using microsimulation
By Hill Kulu, Andrew Ibbetson, Sanny Afable, Julia Mikolai
Abstract
Background: This study projects family life courses of the descendants of immigrants in England and Wales using microsimulation. While previous projections have estimated the size of ethnic groups, this is the first study to examine how the family and age structures of the descendants of immigrants evolve across generations and over time.
Objective: Our aim is to explore how the future age, partnership, and parity distributions of immigrant descendant populations develop in the United Kingdom.
Methods: We develop a microsimulation model of fertility and partnership transitions from ages 20–49, using partnership formation, dissolution, and fertility rates from previous research. We construct a base population using data from the 2011 Census.
Results: The results show, first, significant heterogeneity in partnership and fertility patterns among migrant populations. Second, this heterogeneity is reduced among the descendants of immigrants, especially for fertility levels. Third, the distribution of the descendants of immigrants by partnership and parity gradually becomes similar to that of the native population.
Conclusions: This study shows an increasing similarity in the family behaviour of majority and minority populations, and also that it may take a generation or two before the differences vanish. This study also demonstrates that microsimulation is a useful tool for projecting the life histories and family structures of the descendants of immigrants.
Contribution: This is the first study to project partnership and parity structure for the descendants of immigrants, improving our understanding of how migrant populations change across generations.
Author’s Affiliation
- Hill Kulu - University of St Andrews, United Kingdom EMAIL
- Andrew Ibbetson - University College London (UCL), United Kingdom EMAIL
- Sanny Afable - University of St Andrews, United Kingdom EMAIL
- Julia Mikolai - University of St Andrews, United Kingdom EMAIL
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