Volume 12 - Article 11 | Pages 273–300

Decline in Human Cancer Incidence Rates at Old Ages: Age-Period-Cohort Considerations

By Konstantin Arbeev, Svetlana Ukraintseva, Lyubov S. Arbeeva, Anatoli Yashin

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Date received:27 Aug 2003
Date published:13 May 2005
Word count:2878
Keywords:age-period-cohort models, cancer, incidence, multistage theory


Analysis of age-specific trajectories of cancer incidence rates for all sites combined (data source: International Agency for Research on Cancer) reveals a leveling-off and decline of the rates at old ages in different countries and time periods. We apply a non-linear age-period-cohort model (James and Segal 1982) to obtain declining cancer incidence rates at old ages.
The age effects are represented by a power function of age in accordance with a multistage model of carcinogenesis (Armitage and Doll 1954). Applications to cancer incidence in England and Wales, Japan (Miyagi prefecture) and the USA (New York State and San Francisco) illustrate the approach. Further topics of research are discussed.

Author's Affiliation

Konstantin Arbeev - Duke University, United States of America [Email]
Svetlana Ukraintseva - Duke University, United States of America [Email]
Lyubov S. Arbeeva - Ulyanovsk State University, Russian Federation [Email]
Anatoli Yashin - Duke University, United States of America [Email]

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

» Two proofs of a recent formula by Griffith Feeney
Volume 14 - Article 3

» Mathematical Models for Human Cancer Incidence Rates
Volume 12 - Article 10

» Individual Aging and Cancer Risk: How are They Related?
Volume 9 - Article 8

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