Volume 17 - Article 11 | Pages 301–338
Stochastic forecast of the population of Poland, 2005-2050
Date received: | 15 Aug 2006 |
Date published: | 20 Nov 2007 |
Word count: | 8102 |
Keywords: | Poland, predictive distributions, stochastic forecast, uncertainty |
DOI: | 10.4054/DemRes.2007.17.11 |
Abstract
Forecasting the population of Poland is very challenging. Firstly, the country has been undergoing rapid demographic changes. In the 1990s, they were influenced by the political, economic, and social consequences of the collapse of the communist regime. Since 2004 they have been shaped by Poland’s entry into the European Union. Secondly, the availability of statistics for Poland on past trends is strongly limited. The resulting high uncertainty of future trends should be dealt with systematically, which is an essential part of the stochastic forecast presented in this paper. The forecast results show that the Polish population will constantly decline during the next decades and Poland will face significant ageing as indicated by a rising old-age dependency-ratio. There is a probability of 50 % that in 2050 the population will number between 27 and 35 millions compared to 38.2 in 2004 and that there will be at least 63 persons aged 65+ per 100 persons aged 19-64.
Author's Affiliation
Anna Matysiak - Uniwersytet Kardynała Stefana Wyszyńskiego w Warszawie, Poland
Beata Nowok - University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research
»
A visual tool to explore the composition of international migration flows in the EU countries, 1998–2015
Volume 42 - Article 27
»
The positive impact of women’s employment on divorce: Context, selection, or anticipation?
Volume 38 - Article 37
»
Free to stay, free to leave: Insights from Poland into the meaning of cohabitation
Volume 31 - Article 36
»
Levels of recent union formation : Six European countries compared
Volume 22 - Article 9
»
Is Poland really 'immune' to the spread of cohabitation?
Volume 21 - Article 8
»
Poland: Fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes?
Volume 19 - Article 22
Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research
»
Using multiple cause of death information to eliminate garbage codes
Volume 45 - Article 11 | Keywords: Poland
»
A spatial population downscaling model for integrated human-environment analysis in the United States
Volume 43 - Article 54 | Keywords: uncertainty
»
Subnational population forecasts: Do users want to know about uncertainty?
Volume 41 - Article 13 | Keywords: uncertainty
»
Changes in seasonality of births in Poland in the years 1900–2009
Volume 40 - Article 49 | Keywords: Poland
»
Lung cancer mortality in historical context. How stable are spatial patterns of smoking over time?
Volume 40 - Article 15 | Keywords: Poland
Articles
Citations
Cited References: 32
»View the references of this article
Download to Citation Manager
Similar Articles
PubMed
Google Scholar