Volume 2 - Article 5 | Pages –  

Family Dynamics of 63 Million (in 1990) to More Than 330 Million (in 2050) Elders in China

By Yi Zeng, Linda George

Abstract

Based on censuses micro data files, population and family households projections, this paper analyses extremely rapid population aging, family dynamics and living arrangements of the elderly in China. Both our and the U.N.’s most recent projections confirm very rapid increase in proportion of elderly, huge numbers of elderly persons, an extraordinarily rapid increase of the oldest old after 2020, and more serious aging problems in rural than urban areas. Comparative data analysis on family dynamics and living arrangements of the elderly, males vs. females, younger elders vs. oldest old, rural vs. urban, and 1982 vs. 1990 are presented.
According to an application to the multidimensional family household projection model, the family households structure and living arrangements of the Chinese elderly would change dramatically during the first half of the 21th century. In addition to demographic data analysis, we also discuss socio-economic and cultural contexts to explain the issues of rapid aging and changes in family structure and living arrangements of the elderly in China.
Drawing upon our empirical findings, we presented policy recommendations on strengthening family support system, establishing an old age insurance program in rural areas, favourable policy for elderly women in consideration of their disadvantaged status, and smoothly transiting to a two-child plus spacing policy.

Author’s Affiliation

• Yi Zeng - Duke University, United States of America EMAIL
• Linda George - Duke University, United States of America EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Preface to the Special Collection on Interdisciplinary Research on Healthy Aging
Volume 38 - Article 9

Coresidence with elderly parents and female labor supply in China
Volume 35 - Article 23

The association between resilience and survival among Chinese elderly
Volume 23 - Article 5

Estimating time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions in family household projection or simulation
Volume 11 - Article 10

Sociodemographic Effects on the Onset and Recovery of ADL Disability among Chinese Oldest-old
Volume 11 - Article 1

Oldest Old Mortality in China
Volume 8 - Article 7

Association of Divorce with Socio-Demographic Covariates in China, 1955-1985: Event History Analysis Based on Data Collected in Shanghai, Hebei, and Shaanxi
Volume 7 - Article 11

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