Volume 29 - Article 4 | Pages 85–104 Author has provided data and code for replicating results

Fertility Reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe: Recent Evidence from Order-Specific Data

By Joshua R. Goldstein, Michaela Kreyenfeld, Aiva Jasilioniene, Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal

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Date received:09 Jan 2013
Date published:10 Jul 2013
Word count:2111
Keywords:birth order, Europe, fertility, uncertainty, unemployment
Additional files:readme.29-4 (text file, 316 Byte)
 demographic-research.29-4 (zip file, 850 kB)


Objective: This paper provides recent cross-national evidence of the impact of the great recession on fertility in Europe in the context of the recent decade.

Methods: Using data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD), from Eurostat, and from the OECD database, we employ fixed-effects modeling to study how changes in unemployment rates have affected birth rates across Europe.

Results: We find that countries that were hit hard by the recession show reduced fertility when compared with a continuation of recent trends, especially at younger ages.

Conclusions: Our results indicate a strong relationship between economic conditions and fertility. However, there is variation by region, age, and parity suggesting the importance of life course and institutional factors.

Author's Affiliation

Joshua R. Goldstein - University of California, Berkeley, United States of America [Email]
Michaela Kreyenfeld - Hertie School of Governance, Germany [Email]
Aiva Jasilioniene - Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung, Germany [Email]
Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal - Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Germany [Email]

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