Volume 36 - Article 34 | Pages 989–1014  

Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach

By Anthony Medford

Abstract

Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation.

Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory.

Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations.

Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain probability estimates of best-practice life expectancy levels or make projections about future maximum life expectancy.

Comments: Our findings may be useful for policymakers and insurance/pension analysts who would like to obtain estimates and probabilities of future maximum life expectancies.

Author's Affiliation

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Population age structure only partially explains the large number of COVID-19 deaths at the oldest ages
Volume 43 - Article 19

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Subnational contribution to life expectancy and life span variation changes: Evidence from the United States
Volume 50 - Article 22    | Keywords: decomposition methods, life expectancy, lifespan variation, subnational mortality

Mortality inequalities at retirement age between migrants and non-migrants in Denmark and Sweden
Volume 50 - Article 18    | Keywords: immigration, life expectancy, lifespan inequality, Nordic countries, pension age, pension policy

Racial classification as a multistate process
Volume 50 - Article 17    | Keywords: Brazil, demography, increments to life, life expectancy, life table, mortality, multistate, race/ethnicity

Comparative evidence of years lived with reproductive-age morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa (2010‒2019)
Volume 49 - Article 6    | Keywords: life expectancy, maternal morbidities, reproductive age, sub-Saharan Africa

How much time is left? International trends in parenthood expectancy
Volume 48 - Article 16    | Keywords: generational overlap, life expectancy, mean age at first birth, parental lifespan, shared lifetime

Cited References: 31

Download to Citation Manager

PubMed

Google Scholar

Volume
Page
Volume
Article ID