Volume 43 - Article 43 | Pages 1263–1296 Author has provided data and code for replicating results

Child mortality levels and trends: A new compositional approach

By Fatine Ezbakhe, Agustí Pérez Foguet

Print this page  Facebook  Twitter


Date received:13 Aug 2019
Date published:17 Nov 2020
Word count:5481
Keywords:child mortality, compositional data, household interviews, log-ratios, trend analysis
Additional files:readme.43-43 (text file, 543 Byte)
 demographic-research.43-43 (zip file, 3 MB)


Background: Trend analysis of child mortality is vital to evaluate countries’ progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal on health (SDG 3). However, strictly speaking, child mortality data are probabilities, and thus subject to non-negativity and constant-sum constraints.

Objective: Our objective is to assess the application of compositional data analysis for estimating levels and trends in child mortality.

Methods: We compare two data transformations: logit, which is widely used in child mortality estimation, and isometric log-ratio (ILR), which is specifically designed for compositional data. We use publicly available household survey data on neonatal (NMR) and under-five (U5MR) mortality ratios in sub-Saharan Africa.

Results: Although both data transformations yield similar estimates, only the ILR transformation is consistent with the compositional properties of child mortality data. However, the ILR suffers from one key drawback: it requires complete data series, with pairs of observations for both NMR and U5MR. As a result, ILR entails excluding a large amount of available data from the regression analysis.

Conclusions: Complete data is needed to be able to undertake a compositional trend analysis of child mortality. This gap in data can be closed by employing imputation strategies that replace missing values in the existing datasets, and by developing new methods for the indirect estimation of NMR from summary birth history data, as it is currently done for U5MR.

Contribution: This paper extends the literature on child mortality estimation by examining the application of compositional data analysis to this field. It constitutes a first step towards building a Bayesian compositional regression approach for child mortality estimation.

Author's Affiliation

Fatine Ezbakhe - Université de Genève, Switzerland [Email]
Agustí Pérez Foguet - Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Spain [Email]

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» Are sibling models a suitable tool in analyses of how reproductive factors affect child mortality?
Volume 42 - Article 28    | Keywords: child mortality

» A visual tool to explore the composition of international migration flows in the EU countries, 1998–2015
Volume 42 - Article 27    | Keywords: compositional data

» The effects of household and community context on mortality among children under five in Sierra Leone: Evidence from the 2013 Demographic and Health Survey
Volume 40 - Article 11    | Keywords: child mortality

» Coherent forecasts of mortality with compositional data analysis
Volume 37 - Article 17    | Keywords: compositional data

» Visualizing compositional data on the Lexis surface
Volume 36 - Article 21    | Keywords: compositional data