Volume 47 - Article 19 | Pages 545–576 
Influenza mortality in French regions after the Hong Kong flu pandemic
Date received: | 23 Nov 2021 |
Date published: | 12 Oct 2022 |
Word count: | 2477 |
Keywords: | French departments, pandemic, vaccinations |
DOI: | 10.4054/DemRes.2022.47.19 |
Additional files: | readme.47-19 (text file, 1 kB) |
demographic-research.47-19 (zip file, 2 MB) | |
Abstract
Background: Influenza mortality has dramatically decreased in France since the 1950s. Annual death rates peaked during two pandemics: the Asian flu (1956–1957) and the Hong Kong flu (1969–1970).
Objective: This study’s objective is to evaluate whether the second pandemic created a structural change in the dynamics of influenza mortality in France.
Methods: We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas) to estimate statistical models to find out whether a structural change happened and to explain the differences in mortality rates across geographic areas. Influenza mortality increased between 1950 and 1969 and decreased from 1970 onward.
Conclusions: The Hong Kong flu is identified as the event of a structural break. After the break, geographical differences are less explained by regional characteristics such as income, density, or aging ratio. The Hong Kong flu was found to be associated with a major change in influenza mortality in France. Change in health practices and policies induced a decline in mortality that started in 1970, just after the pandemic. The health benefits are notably important for senior citizens and for the poorest regions.
Contribution: We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas). Change in health practices and policies induced a decline in mortality that started in 1970, just after the pandemics. The health benefits are notably important for senior citizens and for the poorest regions.
Author's Affiliation
Florian Bonnet - Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), France
Josselin Thuilliez - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), France
Hippolyte d'Albis - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), France
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