Volume 47 - Article 19 | Pages 545–576  

Influenza mortality in French regions after the Hong Kong flu pandemic

By Florian Bonnet, Josselin Thuilliez, Hippolyte d'Albis

Abstract

Background: Influenza mortality has dramatically decreased in France since the 1950s. Annual death rates peaked during two pandemics: the Asian flu (1956–1957) and the Hong Kong flu (1969–1970).

Objective: This study’s objective is to evaluate whether the second pandemic created a structural change in the dynamics of influenza mortality in France.

Methods: We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas) to estimate statistical models to find out whether a structural change happened and to explain the differences in mortality rates across geographic areas. Influenza mortality increased between 1950 and 1969 and decreased from 1970 onward.

Conclusions: The Hong Kong flu is identified as the event of a structural break. After the break, geographical differences are less explained by regional characteristics such as income, density, or aging ratio. The Hong Kong flu was found to be associated with a major change in influenza mortality in France. Change in health practices and policies induced a decline in mortality that started in 1970, just after the pandemic. The health benefits are notably important for senior citizens and for the poorest regions.

Contribution: We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas). Change in health practices and policies induced a decline in mortality that started in 1970, just after the pandemics. The health benefits are notably important for senior citizens and for the poorest regions.

Author’s Affiliation

• Florian Bonnet - Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), France EMAIL
• Josselin Thuilliez - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), France EMAIL
• Hippolyte d'Albis - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), France EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Beyond the exodus of May–June 1940: Internal migration in France during the Second World War
Volume 45 - Article 18

Computations of French lifetables by department, 1901–2014
Volume 42 - Article 26

Education, labour, and the demographic consequences of birth postponement in Europe
Volume 36 - Article 23

Age groups and the measure of population aging
Volume 29 - Article 23

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