Volume 6 - Article 3 | Pages 49–66
On the Impact of Spatial Momentum
| Date received: | 03 Sep 2001 |
| Date published: | 29 Jan 2002 |
| Word count: | 3773 |
| Keywords: | population growth, population momentum, spatial momentum, urbanization |
| DOI: | 10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.3 |
Abstract
Momentum, the population growth that occurs after a fall in fertility to replacement level, has long been appreciated as a factor in the future population growth of many countries. This paper argues that another aspect of growing populations - their high proportion rural - is also a source of significant growth, and refers to the additional growth attributable to geographical redistribution as spatial momentum.
Using simplifying assumptions, a model for analyzing spatial momentum is developed based on population composition, rates of growth, and levels of interregional migration. Calculations are then done using (i) hypothetical populations exhibiting a range of plausible demographic behavior, and (ii) the population of Mexico, 1970. The results show that spatial momentum can have a substantial impact on ultimate population size under commonly encountered circumstances.
Author's Affiliation
Robert Schoen - Pennsylvania State University, United States of America
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