Volume 8 - Article 8 | Pages 245–260  

The topography of the divorce plateau: Levels and trends in union stability in the United States after 1980

By R. Kelly Raley, Larry L. Bumpass

Abstract

The probability of divorce in the U.S. has remained constant for the last two decades at about 'half of all marriages.' While this estimate is well established, and marked differentials in divorced rates are well known, there are no reliable estimates of differences in the cumulative probability of lifetime divorce.
Using data from the 1990 June CPS, we document very large differentials by race, age at marriage, and education in the probability that recent cohorts of marriage will end in separation or divorce. Then, using data from the 1995 NSFG, we find important increases in differentials in marital dissolution, and especially in all unions, during this period of stable aggregate rates. These results indicate that examining only at marital transitions obscures the growth in family instability that has resulted among some groups because of an increasing proportion of unions begun as cohabitation.

Author’s Affiliation

• R. Kelly Raley - University of Texas at Austin, United States of America EMAIL
• Larry L. Bumpass - University of Wisconsin–Madison, United States of America EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Do low survey response rates bias results? Evidence from Japan
Volume 32 - Article 26

Employment and household tasks of Japanese couples, 1994-2009
Volume 27 - Article 24

A note on race, ethnicity and nativity differentials in remarriage in the United States
Volume 24 - Article 13

Cohabitation and children's living arrangements: New estimates from the United States
Volume 19 - Article 47

Marital Dissolution in Japan: Recent Trends and Patterns
Volume 11 - Article 14

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