Demographic translation and tempo effects: An accelerated failure time perspective

Germán Rodriguez

Volume 14 - Article 6 | Pages 85–110

Demographic translation and tempo effects: An accelerated failure time perspective

By Germán Rodriguez

Date received:

17 Mar 2005

Date published:

14 Feb 2006

Word count:

8737

Keywords:

age at death, age of childbearing, alternative measures of tempo, childbearing, death, fertility, fertility adjustments, measurements, mortality, period-shift model, tempo adjustment, tempo effects

DOI:

10.4054/DemRes.2006.14.6

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Abstract

In this paper I review the concept of tempo effects in demography, focusing on the tempo adjustments proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney and drawing on the work of Ryder and Zeng and Land.
I show that the period-shift model that underlies the proposed adjustments can be motivated from an accelerated failure time cohort perspective. I propose alternative measures of tempo under changing fertility and mortality that share a synthetic cohort interpretation with the adjusted measure of quantum. I stress similarities between the results for fertility and mortality, particularly in terms of mean age of childbearing and mean age at death, but also note some important distinctions.
I conclude that the fertility adjustments can help distinguish quantum and tempo effects, but argue that in the case of mortality the Bongaarts-Feeney measure of tempo-adjusted life expectancy differs from conventional estimates because it reflects past mortality.