Volume 44 - Article 16 | Pages 379–396  

Age and COVID-19 mortality: A comparison of Gompertz doubling time across countries and causes of death

By Isaac Sasson

Abstract

Background: Demographers have emphasized the importance of age in explaining the spread of COVID-19 and its impact on mortality. However, the relationship between COVID-19 mortality and age should be contextualized in relation to other causes of death.

Objective: To compare the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality with other causes of death and across countries, and to use these regularities to impute age-specific death counts in countries with limited data.

Methods: The COVID-19 mortality doubling time in a Gompertz context was compared with 65 major causes of death using US vital statistics. COVID-19 fatality doubling time was similarly compared across 27 countries and used for estimating death counts by age in Israel as a case in point.

Results: First, COVID-19 mortality increases exponentially with age at a Gompertz rate near the median of aging-related causes of death, as well as pneumonia and influenza. Second, COVID-19 mortality levels are 2.8 to 8.2 times higher than pneumonia and influenza across the adult age range. Third, the relationship between both COVID-19 mortality and fatality and age varies considerably across countries.

Conclusions: The increase in COVID-19 mortality with age resembles the population rate of aging. Country differences in the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality and fatality may point to differences in underlying population health, standards of clinical care, or data quality.

Contribution: This study underscores the need to contextualize the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality in relation to other causes of death. Furthermore, it demonstrates how to estimate age-specific COVID-19 deaths in countries with limited data availability.

Author's Affiliation

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

A Bayesian model for age at death with cohort effects
Volume 51 - Article 33    | Keywords: age at death, Bayesian approach, cohort effects, Italy, mortality

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Uruguay from 2020 to 2022
Volume 51 - Article 29    | Keywords: COVID-19, excess mortality, life expectancy, Uruguay

On the relationship between life expectancy, modal age at death, and the threshold age of the life table entropy
Volume 51 - Article 24    | Keywords: Gompertz law, life expectancy, lifespan variation, longevity, mode, mortality

The role of sex and age in seasonal mortality – the case of Poland
Volume 51 - Article 17    | Keywords: mortality, Poland, seasonality, sex differences

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on women’s care work and employment in the Middle East and North Africa
Volume 51 - Article 15    | Keywords: care work, COVID-19, Middle East, North Africa, women's employment

Cited References: 44

Download to Citation Manager

PubMed

Google Scholar

Volume
Page
Volume
Article ID