Volume 53 - Article 36 | Pages 1145–1172  

Unrealized fertility in demography

By Sara Yeatman, Emily Smith-Greenaway

Abstract

Background: Over the past few decades, demographic research on unrealized fertility – the experience of having fewer children than desired – has expanded rapidly, particularly in low-fertility settings. More recently, scholars have shown that unrealized fertility is also widespread in higher-fertility contexts, affecting individuals across diverse sociodemographic conditions. Yet the literature remains fragmented, spanning definitions and measurement approaches, and with limited synthesis across settings.

Objective: This article reflects on the current state of demographic research on unrealized fertility. Drawing on studies from both the Global North and Global South, we provide a narrative review of how unrealized fertility has been measured, its primary causes, and the persistent gaps in the field.

Results: We identify five dominant approaches to measuring unrealized fertility and review their strengths and limitations, as well as the data constraints that hinder cross-contextual comparisons. We then consider the principal causes of unrealized fertility and introduce a preliminary conceptual model for understanding its multilevel drivers. Finally, we highlight key gaps in the literature and propose substantive and methodological directions for future research.

Contribution: As unrealized fertility is increasingly the focus of public discourse and policy debates, this is a critical moment for demography to deepen and standardize research on the topic. Our review synthesizes the field to date and offers concrete recommendations for advancing demographic research on unrealized fertility.

Author’s Affiliation

• Sara Yeatman - University of Colorado Denver, United States of America EMAIL
• Emily Smith-Greenaway - University of Southern California, United States of America EMAIL

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Does the orphan disadvantage "spill over"? An analysis of whether living in an area with a higher concentration of orphans is associated with children’s school enrollment in sub-Saharan Africa
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