Volume 53 - Article 14 | Pages 373–418  

Should we be concerned about low fertility? A discussion of six possible arguments

By Øystein Kravdal

Abstract

Objective: The low fertility in high-income countries has raised concerns among the public, politicians, and social scientists. In this paper, six possible arguments for considering low fertility as a ‘problem’ – in the sense that political interventions might be warranted – are presented and discussed.

Conclusions: One argument, which is widely recognized and clearly relevant, is that low fertility exacerbates ageing and leads to lower population growth, which may have adverse aggregate-level economic effects. The environment may also be affected, but more likely in a positive way. A second argument focuses on low fertility stemming from subfecundity and possibly inadequate access to fertility treatments, which may be a source of strong dissatisfaction. Two other individual-level arguments are based on the idea that intentions to have few or no children may not actually align with individuals’ own best interests, or that there is a gap between desired and intended fertility. However, the first idea lacks sufficient empirical evidence, while the second requires additional supporting ideas to form a strong argument for considering low fertility a problem. The fifth argument, about the possibility that low fertility may influence parents and children in ways that have economic and other implications for society, is also very challenging to substantiate empirically. The sixth argument is based on an entirely different perspective, where low fertility is considered as partly a result of economic uncertainty or other individual or societal factors that themselves constitute a problem, given their broadly adverse consequences for individuals’ wellbeing.

Contribution: The presentation and discussion of these arguments may help structure and clarify future discussions about whether steps should be taken to increase fertility.

Author’s Affiliation

• Øystein Kravdal - Universitetet i Oslo, Norway EMAIL

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