Volume 14 - Article 22 | Pages 541–574
Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions
| Date received: | 05 Sep 2005 |
| Date published: | 30 Jun 2006 |
| Word count: | 8156 |
| Keywords: | antiretroviral therapy, demographic impact, HIV/AIDS prevention, simulation, South Africa |
| DOI: | 10.4054/DemRes.2006.14.22 |
Abstract
This paper describes an approach to incorporating the impact of HIV/AIDS and the effects of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes into a cohort component projection model of the South African population. The modelled HIV-positive population is divided into clinical and treatment stages, and it is demonstrated that the age profile and morbidity profile of the HIV-positive population is changing significantly over time.
HIV/AIDS is projected to have a substantial demographic impact in South Africa. Prevention programmes - social marketing, voluntary counselling and testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission and improved treatment for sexually transmitted diseases - are unlikely to reduce AIDS mortality significantly in the short term. However, more immediate reductions in mortality can be achieved when antiretroviral treatment is introduced.
Author's Affiliation
Leigh F. Johnson - University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa
Rob Dorrington - University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa
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