Volume 14 - Article 22 | Pages 541–574
Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions
Date received: | 05 Sep 2005 |
Date published: | 30 Jun 2006 |
Word count: | 8156 |
Keywords: | antiretroviral therapy, demographic impact, HIV/AIDS prevention, simulation, South Africa |
DOI: | 10.4054/DemRes.2006.14.22 |
Abstract
This paper describes an approach to incorporating the impact of HIV/AIDS and the effects of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes into a cohort component projection model of the South African population. The modelled HIV-positive population is divided into clinical and treatment stages, and it is demonstrated that the age profile and morbidity profile of the HIV-positive population is changing significantly over time.
HIV/AIDS is projected to have a substantial demographic impact in South Africa. Prevention programmes - social marketing, voluntary counselling and testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission and improved treatment for sexually transmitted diseases - are unlikely to reduce AIDS mortality significantly in the short term. However, more immediate reductions in mortality can be achieved when antiretroviral treatment is introduced.
Author's Affiliation
Leigh F. Johnson - University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa
Rob Dorrington - University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa
Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research
»
Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model
Volume 21 - Article 11
»
Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality
Volume 19 - Article 46
Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research
»
To what extent were life expectancy gains in South Africa attributable to declines in HIV/AIDS mortality from 2006 to 2017? A life table analysis of age-specific mortality
Volume 46 - Article 18 | Keywords: antiretroviral therapy, South Africa
»
Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model
Volume 21 - Article 11 | Keywords: simulation, South Africa
»
Unobserved population heterogeneity and dynamics of health disparities
Volume 43 - Article 34 | Keywords: simulation
»
Taking birth year into account when analysing effects of maternal age on child health and other outcomes: The value of a multilevel-multiprocess model compared to a sibling model
Volume 40 - Article 43 | Keywords: simulation
»
Household structure vs. composition: Understanding gendered effects on educational progress in rural South Africa
Volume 37 - Article 59 | Keywords: South Africa
Articles
Citations
Cited References: 80
»View the references of this article
Download to Citation Manager
Similar Articles
PubMed
Google Scholar