Volume 14 - Article 22 | Pages 541–574  

Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions

By Leigh F. Johnson, Rob Dorrington

Abstract

This paper describes an approach to incorporating the impact of HIV/AIDS and the effects of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes into a cohort component projection model of the South African population. The modelled HIV-positive population is divided into clinical and treatment stages, and it is demonstrated that the age profile and morbidity profile of the HIV-positive population is changing significantly over time.
HIV/AIDS is projected to have a substantial demographic impact in South Africa. Prevention programmes - social marketing, voluntary counselling and testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission and improved treatment for sexually transmitted diseases - are unlikely to reduce AIDS mortality significantly in the short term. However, more immediate reductions in mortality can be achieved when antiretroviral treatment is introduced.

Author’s Affiliation

• Leigh F. Johnson - University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa EMAIL
• Rob Dorrington - University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model
Volume 21 - Article 11

Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality
Volume 19 - Article 46

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

The COVID-19 pandemic and fertility responses: TFR simulation analysis using parity progressions in South Korea
Volume 49 - Article 32    | Keywords: COVID-19, fertility intentions, marriage intentions, simulation

To what extent were life expectancy gains in South Africa attributable to declines in HIV/AIDS mortality from 2006 to 2017? A life table analysis of age-specific mortality
Volume 46 - Article 18    | Keywords: antiretroviral therapy, HIV/AIDS, life expectancy, South Africa

Unobserved population heterogeneity and dynamics of health disparities
Volume 43 - Article 34    | Keywords: birth cohorts, cumulative advantage, life expectancy, mortality selection, simulation, unobserved frailty

Taking birth year into account when analysing effects of maternal age on child health and other outcomes: The value of a multilevel-multiprocess model compared to a sibling model
Volume 40 - Article 43    | Keywords: birth cohorts, maternal age, multilevel model, multiprocess model, siblings, simulation

Household structure vs. composition: Understanding gendered effects on educational progress in rural South Africa
Volume 37 - Article 59    | Keywords: children, coresidence, education, extended households, parents, South Africa