Volume 35 - Article 30 | Pages 891–928  

The Great Recession and America’s geography of unemployment

By Brian Thiede, Shannon Monnat

Abstract

Background: The Great Recession of 2007-2009 was the most severe and lengthy economic crisis in the US since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The impacts on the population were multi-dimensional, but operated largely through local labor markets.

Objective: To examine differences in recession-related changes in county unemployment rates and assess how population and place characteristics shaped these patterns.

Methods: We calculate and decompose Theil Indexes to describe recession-related changes in the distribution of unemployment rates between counties and states. We use exploratory spatial statistics to identify geographic clusters of counties that experienced similar changes in unemployment. We use spatial regression to evaluate associations between county-level recession impacts on unemployment and demographic composition, industrial structure, and state context.

Results: The recession was associated with increased inequality between county labor markets within states, but declining between-state differences. Counties that experienced disproportionate recession-related increases in unemployment were spatially clustered and characterized by large shares of historically disadvantaged racial and ethnic minority populations, low educational attainment, and heavy reliance on pro-cyclical industries. Associations between these sources of vulnerability were partially explained by unobserved state-level factors.

Conclusions: The local consequences of macroeconomic trends are associated with county population characteristics, and the structural contexts and policy environments in which they are embedded. The recession placed upward pressure on within-state disparities in local labor market conditions.

Contribution: To present new estimates of the recession’s impact on local labor markets, quantify how heterogeneous impacts affected the distribution of unemployment prevalence, and identify county characteristics associated with disproportionately large recession-related increases in unemployment.

Author's Affiliation

• Brian Thiede - Pennsylvania State University, United States of America EMAIL
• Shannon Monnat - Pennsylvania State University, United States of America EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Child poverty across immigrant generations in the United States, 1993–2016: Evidence using the official and supplemental poverty measures
Volume 39 - Article 40

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Couples' paid work, state-level unemployment, and first births in the United States
Volume 45 - Article 38    | Keywords: breadwinner, dual earners, Great Recession, parenthood, social norms, unemployment

Socioeconomic differentials in fertility in South Korea
Volume 44 - Article 39    | Keywords: education, family, fertility, gender, housing, inequality, Korea, labor market, nonstandard work, parity

Explaining the MENA paradox: Rising educational attainment yet stagnant female labor force participation
Volume 43 - Article 28    | Keywords: employment, female labor force participation, human capital, labor market, Middle East, North Africa

Ready for parenthood? Dual earners' relative labour market positions and entry into parenthood in Belgium
Volume 42 - Article 33    | Keywords: Belgium, couple perspective, couples, first birth, gender, labor market, relative labor market characteristics

Gender differences in willingness to move for interregional job offers
Volume 40 - Article 53    | Keywords: gender differences, labor market, regions, spatial mobility