Volume 41 - Article 2 | Pages 37–52  

The geography of changing fertility in Myanmar

By Anne Schuster, Sabu S. Padmadas, Andrew Hinde

Abstract

Background: Between 1983 and 2014, the total fertility rate in Myanmar declined from 4.7 to 2.3 children per woman. Previous analyses of fertility decline in the country suggest that the decline varied regionally, but the geography of the decline has not been formally assessed.

Methods: Using data from the 1983 and 2014 censuses, we examine fertility trends and geospatial patterns in fertility decline in Myanmar during the intercensal period, and investigate the aggregate socioeconomic factors underlying fertility decline at subregional levels.

Results: Between 1983 and 2014, fertility change at subregional level was characterised by a precipitous decline in fertility rates in the broad central valley areas and a much weaker decline in remote, peripheral areas. Regression analysis of the 2014 census data, adjusting for state/region level variances, reveals a strong negative correlation between fertility and access to modern communication technologies. District-level female education and road connectivity were also associated with fertility.

Conclusions: The geographical diversity in Myanmar’s fertility transition has intensified over time, as fertility decline is concentrated in areas with greater development, higher socioeconomic status, and better connectivity to information networks.

Contribution: A district’s digital connectivity, measured through access to communication technologies, was a better predictor of fertility than other traditional measures. There is a need to explore to what extent digital connectivity is a proxy indicator for levels of modernisation and access to family planning and reproductive health services, and the extent to which it measures the intensity of social networks and the diffusion of information.

Author's Affiliation

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Spatial heterogeneity in son preference across India’s 640 districts: An application of small-area estimation
Volume 47 - Article 26

Women's economic empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from cross-national population data
Volume 47 - Article 15

On the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa
Volume 37 - Article 40

Gender Inequalities in Employment and Wage-earning among Economic Migrants in Chinese Cities
Volume 34 - Article 6

An editorial on plagiarism
Volume 24 - Article 17

Does early childbearing and a sterilization-focused family planning programme in India fuel population growth?
Volume 20 - Article 28

Unusually small sex differentials in mortality of Israeli Jews: What does the structure of causes of death tell us?
Volume 20 - Article 11

Fertility and union dissolution in Brazil: an example of multi-process modelling using the Demographic and Health Survey calendar data
Volume 17 - Article 7

The proximate determinants of fertility and birth intervals in Egypt: An application of calendar data
Volume 16 - Article 3

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Disentangling the Swedish fertility decline of the 2010s
Volume 47 - Article 12    | Keywords: childbearing, fertility, fertility decline, fertility trends, Sweden

Are parents and children coresiding less than before? An analysis of intergenerational coresidence in South Korea, 1980–2015
Volume 45 - Article 1    | Keywords: fertility decline, intergenerational coresidence, Korea, mortality decline, Sullivan method

Measuring and explaining the baby boom in the developed world in the mid-twentieth century
Volume 38 - Article 40    | Keywords: 20th century, baby boom, developed countries, fertility, fertility decline, fertility transition

Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: Decomposition using parity progression ratios
Volume 38 - Article 25    | Keywords: childlessness, cohort fertility, decomposition, family size, fertility decline, parity progression ratios

On the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa
Volume 37 - Article 40    | Keywords: Asia, Caribbean, fertility, fertility decline, Latin America, North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa