Volume 42 - Article 2 | Pages 15–56  

Factors incorporated into future survival estimation among Europeans

By Apostolos Papachristos, Georgia Verropoulou, George Ploubidis, Cleon Tsimbos


Background: Subjective survival probabilities are affected by individual-specific judgment and vary by factors known to differentiate actual mortality.

Objective: The aim of this study is to evaluate whether sociodemographic characteristics, physical and mental health, and lifestyle are incorporated into subjective survival probabilities of Europeans aged 50 or higher.

Methods: We use data from Wave 6 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and period life tables from the Human Mortality Database (HMD). For the statistical analysis we employ multinomial logistic regression models.

Results: Our results show that common factors drive the self-reported subjective survival probabilities. Certain factors affecting actual mortality are considered when forming subjective survival probabilities: income, education, poor physical and mental health, activities of daily living (ADLs), smoking, physical activity, diet, quality of life, and number of children. Other factors are not considered in a manner consistent with actual mortality patterns: age, gender, marital status, and body weight. The findings regarding cognitive function are inconclusive; whereas some aspects seem to be integrated in subjective survival probabilities (e.g., memory or self-writing skills), others are not (e.g., numeracy or orientation in time).

Contribution: The contribution of this study is the grouping of sociodemographic, health, and lifestyle characteristics according to the subjective survival probabilities’ direction and consistency with general population mortality and actual mortality patterns. Hence, we assess which traits are incorporated in the formation of subjective survival probabilities among Europeans aged 50 or higher.

Author's Affiliation

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

A test of the predictive validity of relative versus absolute income for self-reported health and well-being in the United States
Volume 48 - Article 26    | Keywords: absolute income, health, inequality, measurement, relative income, well-being

Gender and educational inequalities in disability-free life expectancy among older adults living in Italian regions
Volume 47 - Article 29    | Keywords: disability, gender, health, inequalities, Italy, mortality, older adults, regions

Mexican mortality 1990‒2016: Comparison of unadjusted and adjusted estimates
Volume 44 - Article 30    | Keywords: data quality, demography, Human Mortality Database (HMD), life expectancy, life tables, Mexico, mortality

The lasting impact of parental migration on children's education and health outcomes: The case of China
Volume 43 - Article 9    | Keywords: China, education, health, left-behind children, long-term migration

Greater mortality variability in the United States in comparison with peer countries
Volume 42 - Article 36    | Keywords: Human Mortality Database (HMD), international comparison, life expectancy, mortality