Volume 38 - Article 60 | Pages 1843–1884 
Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates
References
Abbasi-Shavazi, M. and McDonald, P. (2005). National and provincial-level fertility trends in Iran, 1972–2000. Canberra: Australian National University (Working Papers in Demography No. 94).
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J., Pelletier, F., Buettner, T., and Heilig, G.K. (2011). Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries. Demography 48(3): 815–839.
Weblink | doi:10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Andreev, E., Darsky, L., and Kharkova, T. (1998). Demographic history of Russia: 1927–1959. Moscow: Informatika.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Arokiasmy, P. and Goli, S. (2012). Fertility convergence in the Indian states: An assessment of changes in averages and inequalities in fertility. Genus 68: 65–88.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2008). 3105.0.65.001: Australian Historial Population Statistics, 2008 [electronic resource]. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Weblink | http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs.nsf/Lookup ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2010). 3101.0: Australian Demographic Statistics, June 2010 [electronic resource]. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Weblink | http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Detai ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Badan Pusat Statistik (2010). Fertilitas penduduk Indonesia: Hasil sensus penduduk 2010. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Weblink | http://sp2010.bps.go.id/files/ebook/fertilita ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Basten, S., Huinink, J., and Klüsener, S. (2012). Spatial variation of sub-national fertility trends in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Comparative Population Studies 36(2–3): 12–52.
Weblink | doi:10.4232/10.CPoS-2011-08en |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Borges, G.M. (2015). Subnational fertility projections in Brazil: A Bayesian probabilistic approach application. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, San Diego, USA, April 30–May 2, 2015.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Brenes, G. (2012). Evaluation of the 2011 census and demographic estimates for the period 1950–2011.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Calhoun, C. (1993). Book review: From provinces into nations: Demographic integration in Western Europe, 1870–1960, by Susan Cotts Watkins. Journal of Modern History 65(3): 597–599.
Weblink | doi:10.1086/244688 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Chamie, J. (1994). Trends, variations, and contradictions in national policies to influence fertility. Population and Development Review 20(Supplement): 37–50.
Weblink | doi:10.2307/2807938 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Cuba, Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas de (2005a). Series demográficas 1982–2002: Tomo I. Havana: Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas de Cuba.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Cuba, Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas de (2005b). Anuario demográfico de Cuba 2005–2011 [electronic resource]. Havana: Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas de Cuba.
Weblink | http://www.one.cu/PublicacionesDigitales/Publ ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
de Beer, J. and Deerenberg, I. (2007). An explanatory model for projecting regional fertility differences in the Netherlands. Population Research and Policy Review 26(5–6): 511–528.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Dorius, S.F. (2008). Global demographic convergence? A reconsideration of changing intercountry inequality in fertility. Population and Development Review 34(3): 519–537.
Weblink | doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00235.x |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
ESCAP (1987). Levels and trends of fertility in Indonesia based on the 1971 and 1980 population censuses: A study of regional differentials. Bangkok: United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Eurostat (2012). Fertility rates by age and NUTS 2 region [electronic resource]. Luxembourg: Eurostat.
Weblink | http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-dat ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations. Demographic Research 30(35): 1011–1034.
Weblink | doi:10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.35 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Gauthier, A.H. (2007). The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: A review of the literature. Population Research and Policy Review 26(3): 323–346.
Weblink | doi:10.1007/s11113-007-9033-x |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A.E. (2007). Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation. Journal of the American Statistical Association 102(477): 359–378.
Weblink | doi:10.1198/016214506000001437 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Gullickson, A. (2001). Multiregional probabilistic forecasting.
Weblink | http://u.demog.berkeley.edu/~aarong/PAPERS/gu ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Gullickson, A. and Moen, J. (2001). The use of stochastic methods in local area population forecasts.
Weblink | http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/~aarong/PAPERS/ ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Hersbach, H. (2000). Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems. Weather and Forecasting 15: 559–570.
Weblink | doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0559:DOTCRP>2.0.CO;2 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Hirschman, C. (1994). Why fertility changes. Annual Review of Sociology 20(1): 203–233.
Weblink | doi:10.1146/annurev.soc.20.1.203 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
INDEC (2012). Dinámica y estructura de la población: Tasa bruta de natalidad por provincia: Años 1980–2009 [electronic resource]. Canberra: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censo.
Weblink | https://web.archive.org/web/20131114005930/ht ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
INE (2012). Demografía y población [electronic resource]. Madrid: Instituto Nacional de Estadística.
Weblink | http://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/es/categoria. ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
INSEE (2012). 1990–2009 statistiques de l'état civil et estimations de population: Tableay P3D: Indicateurs généraux de population par département et région [electronic resource]. Paris: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques.
Weblink | https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/fichier/ ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
INSEE and Daguet, F. (2006). Données de démographie régionale 1954 à 1999. Paris: Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
ISTAT (2012). Serie storiche: Tavola 2.7.1 [electronic resource]. Rome: Italian National Institute of Statistics.
Weblink | http://seriestoriche.istat.it/index.php?id=1n ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Kalwij, A. (2010). The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in Western Europe. Demography 47(2): 503–519.
Weblink | doi:10.1353/dem.0.0104 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Keyfitz, N. (1981). The limits of population forecasting. Population and Development Review 7(4): 579–593.
Weblink | doi:10.2307/1972799 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Klüsener, S., Perelli-Harris, B., and Gassen, N.S. (2013). Spatial aspects of the rise of nonmarital fertility across Europe since 1960: The role of states and regions in shaping patterns of change. European Journal of Population 29(2): 137–165.
Weblink | doi:10.1007/s10680-012-9278-x |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Lee, R., Miller, T., and Edwards, R.D. (2003). The growth and aging of California’s population: Demographic and fiscal projections, characteristics and service needs. Berkeley: University of California (CEDA Papers, Special Report).
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Linder, F. and Grover, R. (1947). Vital statistics rates in the United States 1900–1940. Washington, D.C.: National Office of Vital Statistics.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Luci-Greulich, A. and Thévenon, O. (2013). The impact of family policies on fertility trends in developed countries. European Journal of Population 29(4): 387–416.
Weblink | doi:10.1007/s10680-013-9295-4 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
National Institute of Statistics (2006). Demographic yearbook 2006. Bucharest: National Institute of Statistics.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
National Statistical Institute (no year). Population: Demography, migration and projections [electronic resource]. Sofia: National Statistical Institute.
Weblink | http://www.nsi.bg/en/content/6593/population- ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
NCHS (1977). Birth and fertility rates for states and metropolitan areas. Hyattsville: National Center for Health Statistics (DHEW Publication No. (HRA) 78-1905).
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
NCHS (no year). Vital statistics data [electronic resource]. Hyattsville: National Center for Health Statistics.
Weblink | https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/vitalsta ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
NISRA (2014). Population projections for areas within Northern Ireland: 2014-based. Belfast: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (Methodology Paper).
Weblink | https://www.nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.gov.uk/fi ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Office, National Statistics (1997). Report on the 1995–1996 Survey of population change. Bangkok National Statistics Office.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Office Fédéral de la Statistique (2012). Indicateur conjoncturel de fécondité selon le canton [electronic resource]. Neuchâtel: Office Fédéral de la Statistique.
Weblink | https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/statisti ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner (no year). 1971–2010 sample registration system [electronic resource]. New Delhi: Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner.
Weblink | http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011-Common/Sam ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Office., Czech Statistical (2012). Demographic yearbook of the regions of the Czech Republic 2002–2011 [electronic resource]. Praha: Czech Statistical Office.
Weblink | https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/demographic-year ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
O’Connell, M. (1981). Regional fertility patterns in the United States: Convergence or divergence? International Regional Science Review 6(1): 1–14.
Weblink | doi:10.1177/016001768100600101 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Pantelides, E.A. (1989). La fecundidad adolescente en la Argentina al comienzo del Siglo XXI. Buenos Aires: Centro de Estudios de Población.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Pantelides, E.A. (2006). La transicion de la fecundidad en la Argentina 1869–1947. Buenos Aires: Centro de Estudios de Población.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Partida Bush, V. (2008). Proyecciones de la población de méxico, de las entidades federativas, de los municipios y de las localidades 2005–2050. Mexico City: Consejo Nacional de Población (Documento metodológico).
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Pejaranonda, C. (1985). Declines in fertility by district in Thailand: An analysis of the 1980 census. Bangkok: United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Raftery, A.E., Alkema, L., and Gerland, P. (2014). Bayesian population projections for the United Nations. Statistical Science 29(1): 58–68.
Weblink | doi:10.1214/13-STS419 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Raftery, A.E., Li, N., Ševčíková, H., Gerland, P., and Heilig, G.K. (2012). Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109(35): 13915–13921.
Weblink | doi:10.1073/pnas.1211452109 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Ram, U. and Ram, F. (2009). Fertility in India: Policy issues and program challenges. In: Singh, K., Yadava, R., and Pandey, A. (eds.). Population, poverty and health: Analytical approaches. New Delhi: Hindustan: 45–67.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Rayer, S., Smith, S.K., and Tayman, J. (2009). Empirical prediction intervals for county population forecasts. Population Research and Policy Review 28: 773–793.
Weblink | doi:10.1007/s11113-009-9128-7 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Raymer, J., Abel, G.J., and Rogers, A. (2012). Does specification matter? Experiments with simple multiregional probabilistic population projections. Environment and Planning A 44(11): 2664–2686.
Weblink | doi:10.1068/a4533 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Rees, P. and Turton, I. (1998). Investigation of the effects of input uncertainty on population forecasting. Paper presented at the GeoComputation 98 conference, Bristol, UK, September 17–19, 1998.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Rees, P., Wohland, P., Norman, P., and Lomax, N. (2015). Sub-national projection methods for Scotland and Scottish areas: A review and recommendations. Leeds: White Rose University Consortium, University of Leeds (Research report).
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Reher, D.S. (2004). The demographic transition revisited as a global process. Population, Space and Place 10(1): 19–41.
Weblink | doi:10.1002/psp.313 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Reher, D.S. (2007). Towards long-term population decline: A discussion of relevant numbers. European Journal of Population 23(2): 189–207.
Weblink | doi:10.1007/s10680-007-9120-z |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Rele, J. (1987). Fertility levels and trends in India, 1951–1981. Population and Development Review 13(3): 513–530.
Weblink | doi:10.2307/1973137 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Rele, J. (1988). 70 years of fertility change in Korea: New estimates from 1916 to 1985. Asia-Pacific Population Journal 3(2): 29–54.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Rosero-Bixby, L. (2012). Estimates of fertility in the provinces of Costa Rica 1956–2011.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Shorter, F., Macura, M., and the Panel on Turkey (1982). Trends in fertility and mortality in Turkey, 1935–1975. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Smith, S.K. and Sincich, T. (1988). Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors. Demography 25(3): 461–474.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Smith, S.K. and Tayman, J. (2004). Confidence intervals for population forecasts: A case study of time series models for states. Paper presented at the Population Association of America Meeting, Boston, USA, April 1–3, 2004.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2012). Population [electronic resource]. Kiev: State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
Weblink | http://database.ukrcensus.gov.ua/MULT/Databas ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Statistical Centre of Iran (2001). Estimation of levels and patterns of fertility in {Iran: W}ith application of own-children method (1972–1996). Tehran: Statistical Centre of Iran.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Statistics Austria (no year). Geborene: Langfristiger Trend [electronic resource]. Vienna: Statistics Austria.
Weblink | http://statistik.at/web_de/statistiken/mensch ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Statistics Canada (2012). Fertility rates by age and NUTS 2 region [electronic resource]. Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Vital Statistics and Demography Division.
Weblink | https://www.fertilitydata.org/cgi-bin/country ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Statistics Canada (2014). Population projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), provinces and territories (2013 to 2038): Technical report on methodology and assumptions. Ottawa: Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada Catalogue 91-620-X).
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Statistics Denmark (2012). StatBank [electronic resource]. Copenhagen: Statistics Denmark.
Weblink | http://www.statbank.dk/statbank5a/default.asp?w=1280 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Statistics Estonia (2012). Main demographic indicators [electronic resource]. Tallinn: Statistics Estonia.
Weblink | http://pub.stat.ee/px-web.2001/I_Databas/Popu ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Statistics for Wales (2017). Sub-national projections for Wales. Cardiff: Welsh Government (Technical report).
Weblink | http://gov.wales/docs/statistics/2017/171019- ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Statistics Norway (2012). StatBank Table 08556: Total fertility rate and age-specific fertility rates for 5-year periods [electronic resource]. Oslo: Statistics Norway.
Weblink | http://www.ssb.no/en/table/08556 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Statistics of Japan (no year). 2010 demographic sourcebook: Vital statistics: 1960–2010 estimates [electronic resource]. Tokyo: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
Weblink | http://www.e-stat.go.jp |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Statistics Portugal (2012). Demographic indicators: Total fertility rate (no.) by place of residence (NUTS – 2002) [electronic resource]. Lisboa: Statistics Portugal.
Weblink | https://ine.pt/xportal/xmain?xpid=INExpgid=in ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Statistics Sweden (1999). Befolkningsutvecklingen under 250 år: Historisk statistik för Sverige [Population development in Sweden in a 250-year perspective]. Stockholm: Statistiska centralbyrån.
Weblink | https://gupea.ub.gu.se/bitstream/2077/857/1/B ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Stoto, M.A. (1983). The accuracy of population projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association 78(381): 13–20.
Weblink | doi:10.1080/01621459.1983.10477916 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Tayman, J. (2011). Assessing uncertainty in small area forecasts: State of the practice and implementation strategy. Population Research and Policy Review 30(5): 781–800.
Weblink | doi:10.1007/s11113-011-9210-9 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Tayman, J., Schafer, E., and Carter, L. (1998). The role of population size in the determination and prediction of population forecast errors: An evaluation using confidence intervals for subcounty areas. Population Research and Policy Review 17(1): 1–20.
Weblink | doi:10.1023/A:1005766424443 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Tomlinson, R. (1985). The ‘disappearance’ of France, 1896–1940: French politics and the birth rate. Historical Journal 28(2): 405–415.
Weblink | doi:10.1017/S0018246X00003198 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
UNFPA (2011). Impact of demographic change in Thailand. Bangkok: United Nations Population Fund.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
United Nations (2013). World population prospects: The 2012 revision. New York: United Nations.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
United Nations (2015). World population prospects: The 2015 revision, probabilistic population projections. New York: Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
United Nations (2017). World population prospects: The 2017 revision. New York: Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations.
Weblink | http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
US Census Bureau (2016). Subnational projections toolkit: Methods: Projtfr32 [electronic resource]. Suitland: US Census Bureau.
Weblink | https://www2.census.gov/software/sptoolkit/do ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
US Census Office (1902). 1900 census: Volume III: Vital statistics, Part 1: Analysis and ratio tables [electronic resource]. Washington, D.C.: US Census Office.
Weblink | https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1 ... |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Wanner, P. (2000). Caractéristiques des régimes démographiques des cantons suisses 1870–1996. In: Association Internationale des Démographes de Langue Française (ed.). Colloque international de la Rochelle, 22–26 septembre 1998. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France: 243–253.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Watkins, S.C. (1990). From local to national communities: The transformation of demographic regimes in Western Europe, 1870–1960. Population and Development Review 16(2): 241–272.
Weblink | doi:10.2307/1971590 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Watkins, S.C. (1991). From provinces into nations: Demographic integration in Western Europe, 1870–1960. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Wilson, C. (2001). On the scale of global demographic convergence 1950–2000. Population and Development Review 27(1): 155–171.
Weblink | doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00155.x |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Wilson, C. (2004). Fertility below replacement level. Science 204(5668): 207–209.
Weblink | doi:10.1126/science.304.5668.207c |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Wilson, C. (2011). Understanding global demographic convergence since 1950. Population and Development Review 37(2): 375–388.
Weblink | doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00415.x |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Wilson, C., Singh, A., Singh, A., and Pallikadavath, S. (2012). Convergence and continuity in Indian fertility: A long-run perspective, 1871–2008. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, San Francisco, US, May 3--5, 2012.
Weblink | http://paa2012.princeton.edu/abstracts/120470 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Wilson, T. (2013). Quantifying the uncertainty of regional demographic forecasts. Applied Geography 42: 108–115.
Weblink | doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.05.006 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Wilson, T. and Bell, M. (2007). Probabilistic regional population forecasts: The example of Queensland, Australia. Geographical Analysis 29(1): 1–25.
Weblink | doi:10.1111/j.1538-4632.2006.00693.x |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Yao, X. (1995). China fertility data collection. Beijing: China Population Press.
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Ševčíková, H., Alkema, L., and Raftery, A.E. (2011). bayesTFR: An R package for probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate. Journal of Statistical Software 43(1): 1–29.
Weblink | doi:10.18637/jss.v043.i01 |
Download reference in | RIS | BibTeX |
Articles